Another Oscar Season in the Books

And there you have it, the lowest grossing film (ever?) to win Best Picture. And you know, I think that's pretty cool. I'm sure there will be a lot of Avatar fans who are disappointed by the outcome, but hopefully they will give this thrilling and unique film a chance. And special kudos to Kathryn Bigelow for becoming the first woman to win Best Director. As for the rest of the categories, it was all pretty clear who would win. The big surprise, certainly, was Precious shutting out Up in the Air for screenplay. Not entirely in agreement with that decision, but at least it was surprising. Anyway, some stray thoughts:

• Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin were awful. Really, really awful. Which is a shame, since these guys are usually very funny. You'd think given ten nominees, they'd have a wealth of material to work with.
• Indeed, the whole show was a big letdown. From the strange dance sequence during the score nominees, to the return of the supremely awkward acting presentations by other actors, this year was, dare I say, a disaster. It was becoming clear these last few weeks that Adam Shankman, the producer, had no love for the Oscars at all, so this wasn't all that surprising.
• Jeff Bridges finally won! He has True Grit, with the Coen Bros, coming out this Christmas, maybe there's a chance he will be the first consecutive winner since Tom Hanks?
• So, of all the people who have died since Stanly Kubrick in 1999, none have been more worthy of a standalone In Memoriam than John Hughes? I like the guy's films plenty, and his impact is undeniable, but that's just silly.
  
• Less silly? The horror montage. I was doubtful when they announced it, but damn if it didn't make me want to go watch a bunch of scary movies. Good on them for recognizing it in the show.

So it seems the 10 was a big success for the Academy. I'm sure the ratings this year will be huge. Hopefully the Academy will make as good of a selection in their picture choices next year as they did this year. If they continue to show good, varied taste, this could be an experiment I can get behind.

Oscars: Final Predictions

I'm still not entirely sure what to make of the 10, but I think it will largely depend on how the show goes next Sunday. If the new voting system is as flawed as we are hearing, something completely unexpected could show up as the winner. Up is a good example here. Not many people will place it at number 1, but how many would honestly place it in their bottom 5? So if the front runners really are as divisive as they seem, something no one hates could slide in for a win (no offense, Up!). Ultimately, this seems like a pretty cut and dry season, and I doubt there will be a surprise like that, but it will be interesting to see in future years how this plays out when the front runners aren't so certain.


Picture

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air
  

This is seemingly a two film race: Avatar vs The Hurt Locker, a battle to the end. At the moment, it appears as though The Hurt Locker has this easily, but it is still very hard to ignore the fact that no film has ever made so little money and won the big prize. I do love the idea that the year the Academy makes such a blatant attempt to draw in mainstream audiences, it will award Best Picture to the smallest film in their 80+ year history. Still, Avatar has the advantage of being seen by everyone, which can't be ignored.

Winner: The Hurt Locker
Surprise: Avatar


Actor

• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
• George Clooney - Up in the Air
• Colin Firth - A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman - Invictus
• Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
  

Some years just belong to certain actors. It's kind of funny to think that up until November, Crazy Heart was not a 2009 release. Jeff Bridges has so completely wrapped this one up, it's hard to imagine who would have benefited had he stayed in 2010. My guess is Renner would have snuck away with it a la Adrien Brody in 2002. Still, no sense in debating it now, as Bridges finally gets his long deserved Oscar.

Winner: Jeff Bridges
Surprise: Jeremy Renner


Actress

• Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren - The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan - An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
• Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
  

I wonder how much of the support for Bullock this year comes from the notion that she probably won't be nominated again, so if they want her to ever win, they better vote for her now. Streep seems to suffer from the fact that she will probably just be nominated again next year or the year after, so they will have ample opportunities to award her again. Personally, I think it'd be cool if Mulligan or Sidibe won, but it's clearly not going to happen. Bullock has this pretty locked down, but I think there's a contingent of folks who want to see Streep win another one. It's the closest thing to a real race in the top categories.

Winner: Sandra Bullock
Surprise: Meryl Streep


Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon - Invictus
• Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
  

While in other categories, the winner seems so certain because of how beloved the performance is, here it seems to be certain due to how forgettable the competition is. No knock against Waltz, who is indeed amazing, but his competition is extremely meager. Woody Harrelson is the only one who actually makes sense being here, the other three are the very definition of place holders. Nothing special to see here, Waltz gets this with ease.

Winner: Christoph Waltz
Surprise: Woody Harrelson


Supporting Actress

• Penelope Cruz - Nine
• Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
• Mo'Nique - Precious
  

Now here is a category filled with strong performances. I haven't seen Nine, but the other 4 performances are all worthy ones. Which makes it probably harder for someone to upset Mo'Nique: the support for the performances are pretty evenly split. When all the competition is so equally good, the obvious one is usually the smart bet. I still can't believe that Mo'Nique is soon to be an Oscar winner, but she deserves it.

Winner: Mo'Nique
Surprise: Maggie Gyllenhaal


Director

• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
• James Cameron - Avatar
• Lee Daniels - Precious
• Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
  

You've probably heard it by now, but no woman has ever won a directing Oscar. That statistic seems destined to change this year with Bigelow. This usually goes to the Best Picture, and in the rare times it doesn't, it goes to the person whose film is usually looked back upon as the one that should have won (Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist). Regardless of what film wins Picture, I think Bigelow gets this one. Cameron might have been a bigger threat had he not won for Titanic.

Winner: Kathryn Bigelow
Surprise: James Cameron


Original Screenplay

• The Hurt Locker
• Inglorious Basterds
• The Messenger
• A Serious Man
• Up
  

Perhaps the most uncertain category for me, I can't choose between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. Logic dictates that a Best Picture winner needs to rack up a few smaller wins to justify being the big winner, and screenplay is usually a gimme along with editing. Still, the writing in Basterds is what makes it work so well, and I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to give Tarantino another writing Oscar. My head says The Hurt Locker, my heart says Basterds, so in this case I will go with my heart.

Winner: Inglourious Basterds
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Adapted Screenplay

• District 9
• An Education
• In the Loop
• Precious
• Up in the Air
  

This seems pretty easy to call for Up in the Air. Reitman has been turning out well loved films consistently since the start of his career, and it is time to award him for that. Precious is probably a bit too melodramatic and unpleasant to win here, but it's the closet to competition Reitman has. The other three have no shot, though some of them are certainly wonderfully unexpected nominees.

Winner: Up in the Air
Surprise: Precious


Cinematography

• Avatar
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• The White Ribbon
  

Our two eternal combatants, Avatar and The Hurt Locker, appear to be at it once again here. Unfortunately, they each have some pretty strong things going against them. The Hurt Locker is very dreary looking, there aren't a lot of pretty visuals to speak of. It's simply down and dirty film making, as it should be for this kind of film. Avatar, though, is CGI cinematography. What will voters make of that? Will they even count it as cinematography? Could a third party sneak in here? I don't think so, but it's so hard to tell what voters will make of these two films. I will go with Avatar simply because it's big and pretty, something that voters seem to like.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Editing

• Avatar
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
  

The easiest award to win for a Best Picture winner is usually editing. This goes to The Hurt Locker, which is able to sustain long stretches of tension through its expert editing. Occasionally big blockbuster action films can win here if the editing is really great (The Bourne Ultimatum), so Avatar is certainly still in the conversation. I think the fact the film is almost 3 hours long will hurt it in the end, though.

Winner: The Hurt Locker
Surprise: Avatar


Art Direction

• Avatar
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• Sherlock Holmes
• The Young Victoria
  

Another of those more difficult ones to get a feel for. I just have a hard time believing that voters will embrace Avatar in these technical categories where CGI is usually frowned upon. Can entirely computer generated environments really win an art direction award? I think yes, but if they snubbed Avatar here I wouldn't be too surprised. The problem is, what wins instead? Having seen none of the competition, it's hard to say. I would say Sherlock Holmes would be the threat, based on the stylized period recreation that film needed to create.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: Sherlock Holmes


Costumes

• Bright Star
• Coco Before Chanel
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• The Young Victoria
  

If the last one was hard to call based on my lack of knowledge of the nominees, this one's even worse. Having seen none of these films, it is especially hard to call. Coco is about a fashion designer, so it certainly must be in the mix. But The Young Victoria is the prototypical winner here: period costume drama. I think they will stick to the norm, but just maybe Coco can eek out a win?

Winner: The Young Victoria
Surprise: Coco Before Chanel


Sound Mixing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
  

Now we start to get into the Avatar sweep zone. Sound awards are an easy win for a mega blockbuster like this one. There are exceptions, like last year with Slumdog Millionaire, so watch out for the more beloved film in the race: The Hurt Locker. Still, it's hard to imagine Avatar not getting this.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Up
  

See above. No reason to think Avatar can't take this one. Had Up had a nomination in both sound categories, it might have seemed a bigger threat. The Hurt Locker does have the benefit of being an action film of sorts, so it certainly has a shot in this race as well, but it seems less likely than Sound Mixing.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Visual Effects

• Avatar
• District 9
• Star Trek
  

I know I am in the minority (perhaps I am the only one?), but I think District 9 has the best special effects of 2009. Since I am the only person who thinks this, it won't win. But it's nice to imagine.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: District 9


Makeup

• Il Divo
• Star Trek
• The Young Victoria
  

They don't usually nominate two aging-makeup films, so Divo and Victoria will probably cancel each other out, allowing Star Trek to take this.

Winner: Star Trek
Surprise: The Young Victoria


Song

• Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind"
• Nine - "Take It All"
• Paris 36 - "Loin de Paname"
• The Princess and the Frog - "Almost There"
  
• The Princess and the Frog - "Down in New Orleans"
  

A lot of people like to badmouth this category, but I think the voters do a good job 90% of the time in picking winners. As such, Crazy Heart will win here. The Princess and the Frog might have won here if this was 1994.

Winner: The Weary Kind
Surprise: Down in New Orleans


Score

• Avatar
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Hurt Locker
• Sherlock Holmes
• Up
  

Will Michael Giachhino finally win his much deserved Oscar? It looks like it. Up is such a unique and memorable score, helped by the fact that it is pretty much the only thing you hear during the opening montage of the film. But Avatar lurks in the shadows, as it does in so many categories, hoping to steal a win from a more deserving choice.

Winner: Up
Surprise: Avatar


Documentary

• Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country
• The Cove
• Food, Inc.
• The Most Dangerous Man in America
• Which Way Home
  

Because you have to watch all 5 nominees if you want to vote, this is one of those categories where it really helps to see all of them before you predict. I have only seen The Cove, but it seems like a very solid choice - it's thrilling, informative, and powerful. I've heard a lot of good things about Food, Inc, so it might pose a threat.

Winner: The Cove
Surprise: Food, Inc.


Foreign

• Ajami
• The Milk of Sorrow
  
• A Prophet
• The Secret in Their Eyes
• The White Ribbon
  

The obvious choices would be A Prophet and The White Ribbon, the two high profile films. But high profile has nothing to do with it when all 5 must be seen in order to vote. That apparently really benefits The Secret in Their Eyes. Add to that the fact A Prophet was apparently the film that had to be shoehorned into the nominees by the special jury (this is the only category where the voters can't be trusted to choose good movies, so a jury is in place to make sure at least one good movie gets in), it seems like only The White Ribbon can compete with Eyes.

Winner: The Secret in Their Eyes
Surprise: The White Ribbon


Animated

• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Princess and the Frog
• The Secret of Kells
• Up
  

It would be silly to bet against the film also nominated for Best Picture. Still, Pixar fatigue is inevitable, and a viable option actually exists for a change. Fantastic Mr. Fox is certainly a threat here, and were I willing to go out on a limb, it would be my wildcard choice this year to go against the grain. But ultimately, I don't think Up will be the Pixar film voters finally choose to shun.

Winner: Up
Surprise: Fantastic Mr. Fox


As for shorts, my money would be on The Door, A Matter of Loaf and Death, and The Last Truck. It looks like The Hurt Locker will not only be the lowest grossing winner ever, but also one with only 3 wins. Hopefully it will win 1 or 2 more than that, and if it does, it will be pretty clear that a Best Picture win is inevitable. Still, I can't help but wonder how, if at all, the preferential voting will affect the outcome.

And The Nominees Are

It's Oscar time again! Some initial reactions to the nominees:

• I keep flipping back and forth about the 10 issue. On the on hand, we get dreck like The Blind Side. On the other, my top 3 favorite films of 2009 are all BP nominees, something that's never happened before.
  
• Also worth noting, you get films like A Serious Man and The Blind Side as Best Picture nominees with only 2 total noms.
  
• A lot more autopilot noms this year than normal: Cruz, Damon, Mirren, Freeman. I was really disappointed with the acting nominations in general this year, although there were a few pleasant surprises (Maggie Gyllenhaal).
  
• It's nice, after the last 2 years, to have an actual race for Best Picture. Granted, one of the 2 big contenders is a bland summer blockbuster masquerading as quality cinema, but I prefer excitement in my Oscars!
  
• You did it Pixar!
  

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Avatar
  
• The Blind Side
  
• District 9
  
• An Education
  
• The Hurt Locker
  
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious
  
• A Serious Man
  
• Up
  
• Up In The Air
  

Which ones I've seen: Much like last year with The Reader, I got a last minute hunch and forced myself to watch The Blind Side yesterday. It's as awful as expected, but I have seen all ten.

Who should win: Inglourious Basterds

Who will win: The Hurt Locker seems like it is in the lead, but no movie has won BP with that small of a gross. The fact it tied for most nominations is a good sign, though.

Possible upsets? Avatar is just as much as in the running, so it wouldn't be a surprise (but it would be upsetting...)


Best Director

Nominees:

• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
  
• James Cameron - Avatar
  
• Lee Daniels - Precious
  
• Jason Reitman - Up In The Air
  
• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
  

Which ones I've seen: All five (with the ten in place, will we ever see a lone director again?)

Who should win: Tarantino, though Reitman and Bigelow would not bother me at all.

Who will win: Bigelow will go down as the first woman to win Best Director, something long overdue.

Possible upsets? Again, it's a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Cameron already has his Oscar, so hopefully they will pass him over. The sheer size of his film may garner him a lot of votes, though.


Best Actor

Nominees:

• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
  
• George Clooney - Up In The Air
  
• Colin Firth - A Single Man
  
• Morgan Freeman - Invictus
  
• Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Firth

Who should win: Clooney has never blown me away as an actor because he usually plays the same part in most films, but here he makes that signature style work in perfect service of his film.

Who will win: Jeff Bridges. I wasn't amazed by his work in Crazy Heart, but as a career achievement award of sorts, I can't argue: he's a great actor.

Possible upsets? I really don't see any, but perhaps Renner if they love The Hurt Locker a little too much.


Best Actress

Nominees:

• Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
  
• Helen Mirren - The Last Station
  
• Carey Mulligan - An Education
  
• Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
  
• Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Mirren

Who should win: It's funny, but the two front runners are the two worst performances here. I'd prefer to see Sidibe win, but Mulligan would be just as nice.

Who will win: I think it's Bullock's year. I don't understand it, but that's fine.

Possible upsets? The perennial question; when will Streep win another Oscar? The only reason she isn't leading this race anymore is because she already won twice. Were it not for that, she would have no problem beating Bullock.


Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Matt Damon - Invictus
  
• Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
  
• Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
  
• Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
  
• Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Plummer. Seriously, I live in Hollywood, it shouldn't be that hard to find The Last Station and A Single Man at a nearby theater, and yet it is.

Who should win: What an awful line-up. Thankfully, the one brilliant performance will win: Waltz.

Who will win: Christoph Waltz has this locked up.

Possible upsets? Woody Harrelson is the only other deserving person here, and he is long overdue for some serious recognition.


Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Penelope Cruz - Nine
  
• Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air
  
• Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
  
• Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
  
• Mo'Nique - Precious
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Nine. I don't think I will rectify that.

Who should win: I don't know where Mo'Nique found it in her to give that performance, but that Oscar has been hers for a while now.

Who will win: Mo'Nique

Possible upsets? Wow, I honestly don't see any threat here. The Up girls will steal votes from each other and Cruz won last year, so maybe Gyllenhaal?


All in all, not too many surprises this year, which I think we have the 10 to blame. Still, when films like Up and District 9 can get Picture nominations, it's not all bad. We'll see if this sticks around for a while, or if they ditch it in a few years. But they definitely achieved what they set out to do, with five $100 million films in the lineup, and Up in the Air likely to join them thanks to it's awards tally today.

Nominations Tally

Avatar - 9
The Hurt Locker - 9
Inglourious Basterds - 8
Precious - 6
Up in the Air - 6
Up - 5
District 9 - 4
Nine - 4
Star Trek - 4

Another Year In The Can

And there you have it, the most predictable Oscar ceremony in memory. I'm happy that the best film of the five won, although my passion for Slumdog Millionaire is dwindling. Eight Oscars seems excessive, but it's nice to see a film rise above the four or less win streak we've had for half a decade. I was sad to see Mickey Rourke lose, but Sean Penn was not as annoying of a winner as I expected. And congrats to Kate Winslet on her win; it's a performance I was not impressed by, but it's about time she won one of these. Ultimately, I am glad to finally call it quits on 2008 once and for all. With the Oscars handed out, I can finally move on to a hopefully more exciting 2009.

• The show was not the disaster I was kind of expecting. Hugh Jackman did a nice enough job hosting, although his presence was at times nonexistent. His musical number at the start was alternately funny and grating, but at least he said what everyone was thinking about The Reader.
  
• The one thing I feel was undeniably bad was the presentation of the acting awards. It just went on and on with the gushing and the backslapping, to the point of utter smugness. And to top it off, we got no acting clips for the performances. That's usually one of the highlights, seeing which clips they would pick, and I was especially curious to see how they'd present Robert Downey Jr and Heath Ledger.
• Loved Jack Black's comment about doing the Dreamworks film so that he could take all his money earned and bet it on the Pixar film at the Oscars. Very funny stuff, and I'm glad to see someone call Dreamworks out on their sub par films.
• Anyone else think it would have been awesome to ditch that one note Ben Stiller presentation for Cinematography and instead get Christian Bale to present? Now that would have been hilarious!
• I can see why Peter Gabriel wanted nothing to do with the ridiculous Best Song medley. Singing "Down to Earth" and "Jai Ho" at the same time was awful.

So that's a wrap. I did pretty well on my predictions. I believe the only category in which both my prediction and backup failed was in foreign film, but with the announcement yesterday that both Waltz and The Class were forcibly inserted into the nominees after not receiving enough votes, I made a personal last minute guess for Departures. I really hope that next year we get a genuine race for Best Picture. I'd rather be wrong and surprised than right. It's just more fun that way!

Oscars: Final Predictions

It'll be nice to have this Oscar season behind us, as it has been anything but exciting. I like Slumdog Millionaire well enough, but it is strange to see it so unanimously heralded as the best picture of the year. This is the weakest lineup of Best Picture nominees in years, which is such a shame, but ultimately a fair representation of the weak year that was 2008. At least some of the acting categories are still fairly wide open.

Picture

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

Is it just me or does the Best Picture race always seem to be over before it ever really begins? With the exception of 2005, or course. Slumdog Millionaire is the clear cut winner, and while some might try to find holes in its armor, the fact remains that it is the most awarded movie since Schindler's List. The only real unknown entity here is The Reader, which defied odds (and reviews) to get into the final five. The only reason I can think of to explain it is that Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack produced it, so rewarding the film would be one last time to award the two of them after their deaths last year.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Reader

Actor

• Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
• Frank Lengella - Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn - Milk
• Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Now here's an actual showdown. It is honestly a tossup between Penn and Rourke. Both have won about the same amount of awards this season. Both have detractors: Penn just won this award recently, Rourke has had a long troubled history with Hollywood. A part of me wants to say this will result in a tie, something I don't believe has happened since 1969. However, I will go with my heart and say Rourke wins this. Again, neither one would surprise me, and Milk clearly has more support across the board, but I just have to go with Rourke's amazing performance.

Winner: Mickey Rourke
Surprise: Sean Penn

Actress

• Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie - Changeling
• Melissa Leo - Frozen River
• Meryl Streep - Doubt
• Kate Winslet - The Reader

I believe that if Streep loses this, she will become the actress with the longest loosing streak in history. Which begs the question: how much longer until she wins again? Most of her nominations lately have been a token "you were really good this year" citation, but this is the first time in a long while she actually had a real contender of a performance. I think the Academy feels like they are supposed to finally give it to Winslet, so she's my prediction, but a part of me would love to see Meryl win.

Winner: Kate Winslet
Surprise: Meryl Streep

Supporting Actor

• Josh Brolin - Milk
• Robert Downey Jr - Tropic Thunder
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
• Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
• Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Heath Ledger.

Winner: Heath Ledger
Surprise: Heath Ledger

Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Doubt
  
• Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis - Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Here's one category I'm going to go out on a limb for. With Kate Winslet no longer here like she was all season, it becomes harder to guess the winner. Cruz is the most obvious one: previous nominee, Woody Allen film, a bunch of critics awards. But I think this is going to Viola Davis. People can't stop talking about her scene with Meryl, and this nomination reminds me of the nomination (and win) for Beatrice Straight for Network years ago, another film swimming in acting nominations. Sure, Amy Adams might be splitting her votes, but I think enough people want to reward Doubt in some capacity that it will shine here.

Winner: Viola Davis
Surprise: Penelope Cruz

Director

• Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry - The Reader
• David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
• Gus Van Sant - Milk

Win number two for Slumdog. Boyle has won everything under the sun, and this should be no exception. The only threat I can see is Fincher sneaking in considering what a technical marvel his film is. Pretty much sewn up at this point.

Winner: Danny Boyle
Surprise: David Fincher

Original Screenplay

• Frozen River
• Happy-Go-Lucky
• In Bruges
• Milk
• WALL-E

This appears to be down to a Best Picture nominee vs Pixar. I let my heart dictate the Actor race, so here I'll go with my head. Milk is the obvious choice, in spite of how much they loved WALL-E. While the screenplay was Milk's weak link, I think it has to win somewhere, and if not in acting then here. Pixar will win this award one day, hopefully soon.

Winner: Milk
Surprise: WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Doubt
• Frost/Nixon
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

A Best Picture has to prove its worth by picking up a few other awards as well, and this seems like an easy win for Slumdog in that regard. However, I feel like Eric Roth has a lot of love in the Academy, so Button could eek it out in a surprise.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography

• Changeling
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

In my opinion, Slumdog Millionaire is going to sweep most of the awards it is nominated for, deserving or not. Here it shouldn't win over the visually superior Button and Knight, but it will because most of the voters won't be experts on Cinematography and thus will vote with their hearts. I'm thinking that Button will be the runner up here, being that it actually is the best looking film, and it does have a lot of love.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Editing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire

Unless there is a film with unbelievably flashy editing, this is usually a gimme for the Best Picture winner. So Slumdog should have this one, although The Dark Knight will probably give it a run for its money. Also, if Frost/Nixon is going to make any showing at all, it would be here. Unlikely, though.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Art Direction

• Changeling
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Duchess
• Revolutionary Road

Finally unhindered by Slumdog, Button should be able to get a win for its wonderful recreation of Louisiana over the years. But watch out for The Duchess: period pieces like this one have often been the unexpected winner in the smaller tech categories simply because they recreate a long ago place and time.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: The Duchess

Costumes

• Australia
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Duchess
• Milk
• Revolutionary Road

Again, a showdown between Button and The Duchess. This time I think they will flip positions. No category has weirder winners than this one, and The Duchess fits right in with the usual winners here.

Winner: The Duchess
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Sound Mixing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

No achievement is greater this year than the use of sound in WALL-E. Unfortunately it has two things going against it: a Best Picture and a loud blockbuster. Because I think WALL-E has to win a couple of awards, I will go with my heart on this one. However, I think both Slumdog and Knight could so easily slip in.

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Editing

• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

I feel a little better calling this for WALL-E, as the actual creation of the sounds in this film is what was really special about it. This time there are two blockbusters challenging, but I think Iron Man loses because it didn't get in the other sound category. That leaves The Dark Knight as the real challenger here. I expect Knight to go home almost empty handed, so a loss here won't surprise me too much.

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Visual Effects

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man

The visuals in Benjamin Button are amazing, the kind that make you wonder who they did it. That should be enough to secure the Oscar. The Dark Knight had too subtle effects to win, and Iron Man feels like your usual summer blockbuster effects: not special enough to stand out for a win.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: Iron Man

Makeup

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Hellboy II

While it seems obvious that Button will win this, there is the visual effects problem to ponder. Can people tell what is makeup and what is visual effects? If not, then it might lose. Hellboy, while filled with makeup, is a sequel to a film that got no such nomination. I can't imagine the voters will suddenly be taken with something that didn't tickle their fancy the first go around. The Joker makeup in The Dark Knight is already iconic, so if Button falters at all, I see that as the likely film to slide in.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Song

• "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
• "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
• "O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire

Fox Searchlight took a sneaky, mean route this year by disowning "O Saya," instead asking that voters focus only on the other song. This could mean that Slumdog will win in what should have been an otherwise easy one for WALL-E. My success rate in this category has been unusually high this decade (I believe I've called it just about every time), but I am more uncertain this year. I'm sticking with "Down to Earth," but it will be close.

Winner: "Down to Earth"
Surprise: "Jai Ho"

Score

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Defiance
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E

Will Danny Elfman ever win this award? I hope so, but it won't be this year. Instead, this will be another easy one for Slumdog. Thomas Newman, with WALL-E, is one of the most nominated composers without a win. But because he is nominated for "Down to Earth" as well, I think he will be ignored here under the assumption he will win elsewhere. Plus, Slumdog is the kind of score they love to reward: ecclectic, multicultural, and memorable.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: WALL-E

Documentary

• The Betrayal
• Encounters at the End of the World
• The Garden
• Man on Wire
• Trouble the Waters

While it's not one of his best documentaries, I would give anything to see Werner Herzog win his first(!) Oscar for Encounters, if only to hear him speak. The man is a living legend, the likes of which we rarely see. Rant aside, this is down to Man on Wire and Trouble the Waters. Because voters have to see all five nominees before they vote, surprises are more likely to happen. Wire is the populist choice, but i've heard rumblings that Waters is the more impactful film.

Winner: Man on Wire
Surprise: Trouble the Waters

Foreign

• The Baader Meinhof Complex
• The Class
• Departures
• Revenge
• Waltz With Bashir

Can an animated film really win the Foreign film Oscar? It looks like it, although I wouldn't count out The Class just yet. Those two seem to be locked in a fight to the end, although I suspect Bashir wins it.

Winner: Waltz With Bashir
Surprise: The Class

Animated

• Bolt
• Kung-Fu Panda
• WALL-E

Pixar's best movie yet seems like the most obvious win of the night. That said, Panda did sweep the Annie awards earlier this year. Could there be a backlash against the geniouses at Pixar for dominating this category year after year? Possibly, but if so, why don't they just do away with this silly category and allow Pixar to stand on its own with the big dogs?

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: Kung-Fu Panda


So can Slumdog Millionaire really win six Oscars? I think so, perhaps even more (FYI, I predicted the same tally for last year's winner and was high by two). What a weird year this turned out to be. I can't help but wonder how different this whole race would have been if a juggernaught like The Dark Knight had been in the final five, but we'll never know. So good for Slumdog Millionaire, my favorite of the five.