Oscars: Final Predictions

It'll be nice to have this Oscar season behind us, as it has been anything but exciting. I like Slumdog Millionaire well enough, but it is strange to see it so unanimously heralded as the best picture of the year. This is the weakest lineup of Best Picture nominees in years, which is such a shame, but ultimately a fair representation of the weak year that was 2008. At least some of the acting categories are still fairly wide open.

Picture

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

Is it just me or does the Best Picture race always seem to be over before it ever really begins? With the exception of 2005, or course. Slumdog Millionaire is the clear cut winner, and while some might try to find holes in its armor, the fact remains that it is the most awarded movie since Schindler's List. The only real unknown entity here is The Reader, which defied odds (and reviews) to get into the final five. The only reason I can think of to explain it is that Anthony Minghella and Sydney Pollack produced it, so rewarding the film would be one last time to award the two of them after their deaths last year.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Reader

Actor

• Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
• Frank Lengella - Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn - Milk
• Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Now here's an actual showdown. It is honestly a tossup between Penn and Rourke. Both have won about the same amount of awards this season. Both have detractors: Penn just won this award recently, Rourke has had a long troubled history with Hollywood. A part of me wants to say this will result in a tie, something I don't believe has happened since 1969. However, I will go with my heart and say Rourke wins this. Again, neither one would surprise me, and Milk clearly has more support across the board, but I just have to go with Rourke's amazing performance.

Winner: Mickey Rourke
Surprise: Sean Penn

Actress

• Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie - Changeling
• Melissa Leo - Frozen River
• Meryl Streep - Doubt
• Kate Winslet - The Reader

I believe that if Streep loses this, she will become the actress with the longest loosing streak in history. Which begs the question: how much longer until she wins again? Most of her nominations lately have been a token "you were really good this year" citation, but this is the first time in a long while she actually had a real contender of a performance. I think the Academy feels like they are supposed to finally give it to Winslet, so she's my prediction, but a part of me would love to see Meryl win.

Winner: Kate Winslet
Surprise: Meryl Streep

Supporting Actor

• Josh Brolin - Milk
• Robert Downey Jr - Tropic Thunder
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
• Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
• Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Heath Ledger.

Winner: Heath Ledger
Surprise: Heath Ledger

Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Doubt
  
• Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis - Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Here's one category I'm going to go out on a limb for. With Kate Winslet no longer here like she was all season, it becomes harder to guess the winner. Cruz is the most obvious one: previous nominee, Woody Allen film, a bunch of critics awards. But I think this is going to Viola Davis. People can't stop talking about her scene with Meryl, and this nomination reminds me of the nomination (and win) for Beatrice Straight for Network years ago, another film swimming in acting nominations. Sure, Amy Adams might be splitting her votes, but I think enough people want to reward Doubt in some capacity that it will shine here.

Winner: Viola Davis
Surprise: Penelope Cruz

Director

• Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry - The Reader
• David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
• Gus Van Sant - Milk

Win number two for Slumdog. Boyle has won everything under the sun, and this should be no exception. The only threat I can see is Fincher sneaking in considering what a technical marvel his film is. Pretty much sewn up at this point.

Winner: Danny Boyle
Surprise: David Fincher

Original Screenplay

• Frozen River
• Happy-Go-Lucky
• In Bruges
• Milk
• WALL-E

This appears to be down to a Best Picture nominee vs Pixar. I let my heart dictate the Actor race, so here I'll go with my head. Milk is the obvious choice, in spite of how much they loved WALL-E. While the screenplay was Milk's weak link, I think it has to win somewhere, and if not in acting then here. Pixar will win this award one day, hopefully soon.

Winner: Milk
Surprise: WALL-E

Adapted Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Doubt
• Frost/Nixon
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

A Best Picture has to prove its worth by picking up a few other awards as well, and this seems like an easy win for Slumdog in that regard. However, I feel like Eric Roth has a lot of love in the Academy, so Button could eek it out in a surprise.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Cinematography

• Changeling
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Reader
• Slumdog Millionaire

In my opinion, Slumdog Millionaire is going to sweep most of the awards it is nominated for, deserving or not. Here it shouldn't win over the visually superior Button and Knight, but it will because most of the voters won't be experts on Cinematography and thus will vote with their hearts. I'm thinking that Button will be the runner up here, being that it actually is the best looking film, and it does have a lot of love.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Editing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Frost/Nixon
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire

Unless there is a film with unbelievably flashy editing, this is usually a gimme for the Best Picture winner. So Slumdog should have this one, although The Dark Knight will probably give it a run for its money. Also, if Frost/Nixon is going to make any showing at all, it would be here. Unlikely, though.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Art Direction

• Changeling
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• The Duchess
• Revolutionary Road

Finally unhindered by Slumdog, Button should be able to get a win for its wonderful recreation of Louisiana over the years. But watch out for The Duchess: period pieces like this one have often been the unexpected winner in the smaller tech categories simply because they recreate a long ago place and time.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: The Duchess

Costumes

• Australia
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Duchess
• Milk
• Revolutionary Road

Again, a showdown between Button and The Duchess. This time I think they will flip positions. No category has weirder winners than this one, and The Duchess fits right in with the usual winners here.

Winner: The Duchess
Surprise: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Sound Mixing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

No achievement is greater this year than the use of sound in WALL-E. Unfortunately it has two things going against it: a Best Picture and a loud blockbuster. Because I think WALL-E has to win a couple of awards, I will go with my heart on this one. However, I think both Slumdog and Knight could so easily slip in.

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Editing

• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E
• Wanted

I feel a little better calling this for WALL-E, as the actual creation of the sounds in this film is what was really special about it. This time there are two blockbusters challenging, but I think Iron Man loses because it didn't get in the other sound category. That leaves The Dark Knight as the real challenger here. I expect Knight to go home almost empty handed, so a loss here won't surprise me too much.

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Visual Effects

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Iron Man

The visuals in Benjamin Button are amazing, the kind that make you wonder who they did it. That should be enough to secure the Oscar. The Dark Knight had too subtle effects to win, and Iron Man feels like your usual summer blockbuster effects: not special enough to stand out for a win.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: Iron Man

Makeup

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• The Dark Knight
• Hellboy II

While it seems obvious that Button will win this, there is the visual effects problem to ponder. Can people tell what is makeup and what is visual effects? If not, then it might lose. Hellboy, while filled with makeup, is a sequel to a film that got no such nomination. I can't imagine the voters will suddenly be taken with something that didn't tickle their fancy the first go around. The Joker makeup in The Dark Knight is already iconic, so if Button falters at all, I see that as the likely film to slide in.

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Surprise: The Dark Knight

Song

• "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
• "Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
• "O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire

Fox Searchlight took a sneaky, mean route this year by disowning "O Saya," instead asking that voters focus only on the other song. This could mean that Slumdog will win in what should have been an otherwise easy one for WALL-E. My success rate in this category has been unusually high this decade (I believe I've called it just about every time), but I am more uncertain this year. I'm sticking with "Down to Earth," but it will be close.

Winner: "Down to Earth"
Surprise: "Jai Ho"

Score

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Defiance
• Milk
• Slumdog Millionaire
• WALL-E

Will Danny Elfman ever win this award? I hope so, but it won't be this year. Instead, this will be another easy one for Slumdog. Thomas Newman, with WALL-E, is one of the most nominated composers without a win. But because he is nominated for "Down to Earth" as well, I think he will be ignored here under the assumption he will win elsewhere. Plus, Slumdog is the kind of score they love to reward: ecclectic, multicultural, and memorable.

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
Surprise: WALL-E

Documentary

• The Betrayal
• Encounters at the End of the World
• The Garden
• Man on Wire
• Trouble the Waters

While it's not one of his best documentaries, I would give anything to see Werner Herzog win his first(!) Oscar for Encounters, if only to hear him speak. The man is a living legend, the likes of which we rarely see. Rant aside, this is down to Man on Wire and Trouble the Waters. Because voters have to see all five nominees before they vote, surprises are more likely to happen. Wire is the populist choice, but i've heard rumblings that Waters is the more impactful film.

Winner: Man on Wire
Surprise: Trouble the Waters

Foreign

• The Baader Meinhof Complex
• The Class
• Departures
• Revenge
• Waltz With Bashir

Can an animated film really win the Foreign film Oscar? It looks like it, although I wouldn't count out The Class just yet. Those two seem to be locked in a fight to the end, although I suspect Bashir wins it.

Winner: Waltz With Bashir
Surprise: The Class

Animated

• Bolt
• Kung-Fu Panda
• WALL-E

Pixar's best movie yet seems like the most obvious win of the night. That said, Panda did sweep the Annie awards earlier this year. Could there be a backlash against the geniouses at Pixar for dominating this category year after year? Possibly, but if so, why don't they just do away with this silly category and allow Pixar to stand on its own with the big dogs?

Winner: WALL-E
Surprise: Kung-Fu Panda


So can Slumdog Millionaire really win six Oscars? I think so, perhaps even more (FYI, I predicted the same tally for last year's winner and was high by two). What a weird year this turned out to be. I can't help but wonder how different this whole race would have been if a juggernaught like The Dark Knight had been in the final five, but we'll never know. So good for Slumdog Millionaire, my favorite of the five.