And the Nominees Are...

It's that time again: Oscar nominations! A few thoughts:

• Honestly surprised by the complete lack of love for Into the Wild. Only 2 noms. I truly expected it to be a major player this year.
• On the plus side, because Eddie Vedder wasn't nominated for any of his songs, Once now has no real competition for the Best Song win. Enchanted screwed itself over by submitting so many songs, as with 3 nominations it will be splitting its own votes in a big way.
• I was holding out hope for a surprise nomination for Tim Burton, but alas he was shut out.
• Surf's Up over The Simpsons Movie?
• The frontrunners for Best Picture appear to be No Country for Old Men and There Will be Blood, each with 8 nominations.

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will be Blood

Which ones I've seen: For the first time ever I've seen all five nominees before nominations were announced.
Who should win: There Will be Blood.
Who will win: No Country for Old Men.
Possible upsets? Juno. I have grown to loathe this movie, and I think we will look back at it in a few years and wonder what on Earth we were thinking giving it a Best Picture nomination. Unfortunately it's the kind of movie that inspires brief passion, only to be forgotten by its supporters for the next flashy thing. If it wins that'd be a serious black mark on the Academy's record.



Best Director

Nominees:

• Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will be Blood
  
• Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
  
• Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
• Jason Reitman - Juno
  
• Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Schnabel.
Who should win: I'd be fine with either Anderson or the Coens. The Coens have had such an amazing body of work that even if I was less than impressed with their latest film, they still deserve recognition as two of the finest working filmmakers.
Who will win: Right now I can't imagine anyone beating the Coens.
Possible upsets? If Schnabel weren't the lone director I'd say he has a chance, but without the picture nomination it seems unlikely.



Best Actor

Nominees:

• George Clooney - Michael Clayton
  
• Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will be Blood
  
• Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
  
• Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
  
• Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Tommy Lee Jones.
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Who will win: Day-Lewis. The man can't be denied here, he's just too amazing.
Possible upsets? The fact is, Day-Lewis plays one awful sonofabitch, and voters may be turned off by that. If so they'd likely turn to Clooney.



Best Actress

Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• Julie Christie - Away From Her
  
• Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
  
• Laura Linney - The Savages
  
• Ellen Page - Juno
  

Which ones I've seen: Christie, Linney, and Page. I usually fare poorly with the actress categories.
Who should win: I'm not a big fan of the 3 performances I've seen. Of the three, Christie was the weakest in my opinion. She pretty much just plays off our sympathies for a woman going through Alzheimer's. There's just no real range shown. Page did well but had to deal with atrocious dialog. Linney was fine and she's been solid for years, so I'm going to go with her.
Who will win: Christie. Sigh.
Possible upsets? This could prove to be a fairly wide open category. Cotillard apparently gave an astonishing performance, but because it's in a foreign language it may have to fight to win. Also, if Juno has as much love as I fear, Page could sneak in, although I'm not betting on that yet.



Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  
• Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
  
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
  
• Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
  
• Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
  

Which ones I've seen: All of the above.
Who should win: I actually liked every performance here, a sharp change from last year. I'd probably have to go with Affleck, however. It's really more of a lead role, but it was pretty amazing.
Who will win: Bardem. The Academy loves their psychopaths.
Possible upsets? I would have said Holbrook, but the disdain for Into the Wild shown by voters makes me doubt it. However, this is the category most likely to go to a veteran, so if anyone can beat Bardem it's old Hal.



Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
  
• Ruby Dee - American Gangster
  
• Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
  
• Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
  
• Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
  

Which ones I've seen: Everyone.
Who should win: Amy Ryan easily.
Who will win: Probably Ryan. This category is friendly to newcomers.
Possible upsets? Blanchett has to be considered a major threat. She's mimicking a famous person (and a man, no less!), and that seems to trump actual acting more often than it should. Plus she's Blanchett.

Overall nominations weren't too surprising considering how wide open the race seemed. This has to be one of the weakest best picture slates in memory, though. The last two years had great lineups, but this year is marred by the pedestrian Clayton and misguided love for Juno. Anyway, here is the final tally of nominations:

• No Country for Old Men - 8
• There Will be Blood - 8
• Atonement - 7
• Michael Clayton - 7
• Ratatouille - 5 (I believe this is the most nominations for an animated film since Beauty and the Beast)
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 4
• Juno - 4
• The Bourne Ultimatum - 3
• Enchanted - 3 (all songs)
• Sweeney Todd - 3
• Transformers - 3
• La Vie En Rose - 3