Oscars: Final Predictions

I'm still not entirely sure what to make of the 10, but I think it will largely depend on how the show goes next Sunday. If the new voting system is as flawed as we are hearing, something completely unexpected could show up as the winner. Up is a good example here. Not many people will place it at number 1, but how many would honestly place it in their bottom 5? So if the front runners really are as divisive as they seem, something no one hates could slide in for a win (no offense, Up!). Ultimately, this seems like a pretty cut and dry season, and I doubt there will be a surprise like that, but it will be interesting to see in future years how this plays out when the front runners aren't so certain.


Picture

• Avatar
• The Blind Side
• District 9
• An Education
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
• A Serious Man
• Up
• Up in the Air
  

This is seemingly a two film race: Avatar vs The Hurt Locker, a battle to the end. At the moment, it appears as though The Hurt Locker has this easily, but it is still very hard to ignore the fact that no film has ever made so little money and won the big prize. I do love the idea that the year the Academy makes such a blatant attempt to draw in mainstream audiences, it will award Best Picture to the smallest film in their 80+ year history. Still, Avatar has the advantage of being seen by everyone, which can't be ignored.

Winner: The Hurt Locker
Surprise: Avatar


Actor

• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
• George Clooney - Up in the Air
• Colin Firth - A Single Man
• Morgan Freeman - Invictus
• Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
  

Some years just belong to certain actors. It's kind of funny to think that up until November, Crazy Heart was not a 2009 release. Jeff Bridges has so completely wrapped this one up, it's hard to imagine who would have benefited had he stayed in 2010. My guess is Renner would have snuck away with it a la Adrien Brody in 2002. Still, no sense in debating it now, as Bridges finally gets his long deserved Oscar.

Winner: Jeff Bridges
Surprise: Jeremy Renner


Actress

• Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
• Helen Mirren - The Last Station
• Carey Mulligan - An Education
• Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
• Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
  

I wonder how much of the support for Bullock this year comes from the notion that she probably won't be nominated again, so if they want her to ever win, they better vote for her now. Streep seems to suffer from the fact that she will probably just be nominated again next year or the year after, so they will have ample opportunities to award her again. Personally, I think it'd be cool if Mulligan or Sidibe won, but it's clearly not going to happen. Bullock has this pretty locked down, but I think there's a contingent of folks who want to see Streep win another one. It's the closest thing to a real race in the top categories.

Winner: Sandra Bullock
Surprise: Meryl Streep


Supporting Actor

• Matt Damon - Invictus
• Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
• Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
• Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
• Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
  

While in other categories, the winner seems so certain because of how beloved the performance is, here it seems to be certain due to how forgettable the competition is. No knock against Waltz, who is indeed amazing, but his competition is extremely meager. Woody Harrelson is the only one who actually makes sense being here, the other three are the very definition of place holders. Nothing special to see here, Waltz gets this with ease.

Winner: Christoph Waltz
Surprise: Woody Harrelson


Supporting Actress

• Penelope Cruz - Nine
• Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
• Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
• Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
• Mo'Nique - Precious
  

Now here is a category filled with strong performances. I haven't seen Nine, but the other 4 performances are all worthy ones. Which makes it probably harder for someone to upset Mo'Nique: the support for the performances are pretty evenly split. When all the competition is so equally good, the obvious one is usually the smart bet. I still can't believe that Mo'Nique is soon to be an Oscar winner, but she deserves it.

Winner: Mo'Nique
Surprise: Maggie Gyllenhaal


Director

• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
• James Cameron - Avatar
• Lee Daniels - Precious
• Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
  

You've probably heard it by now, but no woman has ever won a directing Oscar. That statistic seems destined to change this year with Bigelow. This usually goes to the Best Picture, and in the rare times it doesn't, it goes to the person whose film is usually looked back upon as the one that should have won (Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, The Pianist). Regardless of what film wins Picture, I think Bigelow gets this one. Cameron might have been a bigger threat had he not won for Titanic.

Winner: Kathryn Bigelow
Surprise: James Cameron


Original Screenplay

• The Hurt Locker
• Inglorious Basterds
• The Messenger
• A Serious Man
• Up
  

Perhaps the most uncertain category for me, I can't choose between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. Logic dictates that a Best Picture winner needs to rack up a few smaller wins to justify being the big winner, and screenplay is usually a gimme along with editing. Still, the writing in Basterds is what makes it work so well, and I'm sure there are a lot of people who want to give Tarantino another writing Oscar. My head says The Hurt Locker, my heart says Basterds, so in this case I will go with my heart.

Winner: Inglourious Basterds
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Adapted Screenplay

• District 9
• An Education
• In the Loop
• Precious
• Up in the Air
  

This seems pretty easy to call for Up in the Air. Reitman has been turning out well loved films consistently since the start of his career, and it is time to award him for that. Precious is probably a bit too melodramatic and unpleasant to win here, but it's the closet to competition Reitman has. The other three have no shot, though some of them are certainly wonderfully unexpected nominees.

Winner: Up in the Air
Surprise: Precious


Cinematography

• Avatar
• Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• The White Ribbon
  

Our two eternal combatants, Avatar and The Hurt Locker, appear to be at it once again here. Unfortunately, they each have some pretty strong things going against them. The Hurt Locker is very dreary looking, there aren't a lot of pretty visuals to speak of. It's simply down and dirty film making, as it should be for this kind of film. Avatar, though, is CGI cinematography. What will voters make of that? Will they even count it as cinematography? Could a third party sneak in here? I don't think so, but it's so hard to tell what voters will make of these two films. I will go with Avatar simply because it's big and pretty, something that voters seem to like.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Editing

• Avatar
• District 9
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Precious
  

The easiest award to win for a Best Picture winner is usually editing. This goes to The Hurt Locker, which is able to sustain long stretches of tension through its expert editing. Occasionally big blockbuster action films can win here if the editing is really great (The Bourne Ultimatum), so Avatar is certainly still in the conversation. I think the fact the film is almost 3 hours long will hurt it in the end, though.

Winner: The Hurt Locker
Surprise: Avatar


Art Direction

• Avatar
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• Sherlock Holmes
• The Young Victoria
  

Another of those more difficult ones to get a feel for. I just have a hard time believing that voters will embrace Avatar in these technical categories where CGI is usually frowned upon. Can entirely computer generated environments really win an art direction award? I think yes, but if they snubbed Avatar here I wouldn't be too surprised. The problem is, what wins instead? Having seen none of the competition, it's hard to say. I would say Sherlock Holmes would be the threat, based on the stylized period recreation that film needed to create.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: Sherlock Holmes


Costumes

• Bright Star
• Coco Before Chanel
• The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
• Nine
• The Young Victoria
  

If the last one was hard to call based on my lack of knowledge of the nominees, this one's even worse. Having seen none of these films, it is especially hard to call. Coco is about a fashion designer, so it certainly must be in the mix. But The Young Victoria is the prototypical winner here: period costume drama. I think they will stick to the norm, but just maybe Coco can eek out a win?

Winner: The Young Victoria
Surprise: Coco Before Chanel


Sound Mixing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
  

Now we start to get into the Avatar sweep zone. Sound awards are an easy win for a mega blockbuster like this one. There are exceptions, like last year with Slumdog Millionaire, so watch out for the more beloved film in the race: The Hurt Locker. Still, it's hard to imagine Avatar not getting this.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Sound Editing

• Avatar
• The Hurt Locker
• Inglourious Basterds
• Star Trek
• Up
  

See above. No reason to think Avatar can't take this one. Had Up had a nomination in both sound categories, it might have seemed a bigger threat. The Hurt Locker does have the benefit of being an action film of sorts, so it certainly has a shot in this race as well, but it seems less likely than Sound Mixing.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: The Hurt Locker


Visual Effects

• Avatar
• District 9
• Star Trek
  

I know I am in the minority (perhaps I am the only one?), but I think District 9 has the best special effects of 2009. Since I am the only person who thinks this, it won't win. But it's nice to imagine.

Winner: Avatar
Surprise: District 9


Makeup

• Il Divo
• Star Trek
• The Young Victoria
  

They don't usually nominate two aging-makeup films, so Divo and Victoria will probably cancel each other out, allowing Star Trek to take this.

Winner: Star Trek
Surprise: The Young Victoria


Song

• Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind"
• Nine - "Take It All"
• Paris 36 - "Loin de Paname"
• The Princess and the Frog - "Almost There"
  
• The Princess and the Frog - "Down in New Orleans"
  

A lot of people like to badmouth this category, but I think the voters do a good job 90% of the time in picking winners. As such, Crazy Heart will win here. The Princess and the Frog might have won here if this was 1994.

Winner: The Weary Kind
Surprise: Down in New Orleans


Score

• Avatar
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Hurt Locker
• Sherlock Holmes
• Up
  

Will Michael Giachhino finally win his much deserved Oscar? It looks like it. Up is such a unique and memorable score, helped by the fact that it is pretty much the only thing you hear during the opening montage of the film. But Avatar lurks in the shadows, as it does in so many categories, hoping to steal a win from a more deserving choice.

Winner: Up
Surprise: Avatar


Documentary

• Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country
• The Cove
• Food, Inc.
• The Most Dangerous Man in America
• Which Way Home
  

Because you have to watch all 5 nominees if you want to vote, this is one of those categories where it really helps to see all of them before you predict. I have only seen The Cove, but it seems like a very solid choice - it's thrilling, informative, and powerful. I've heard a lot of good things about Food, Inc, so it might pose a threat.

Winner: The Cove
Surprise: Food, Inc.


Foreign

• Ajami
• The Milk of Sorrow
  
• A Prophet
• The Secret in Their Eyes
• The White Ribbon
  

The obvious choices would be A Prophet and The White Ribbon, the two high profile films. But high profile has nothing to do with it when all 5 must be seen in order to vote. That apparently really benefits The Secret in Their Eyes. Add to that the fact A Prophet was apparently the film that had to be shoehorned into the nominees by the special jury (this is the only category where the voters can't be trusted to choose good movies, so a jury is in place to make sure at least one good movie gets in), it seems like only The White Ribbon can compete with Eyes.

Winner: The Secret in Their Eyes
Surprise: The White Ribbon


Animated

• Coraline
• Fantastic Mr. Fox
• The Princess and the Frog
• The Secret of Kells
• Up
  

It would be silly to bet against the film also nominated for Best Picture. Still, Pixar fatigue is inevitable, and a viable option actually exists for a change. Fantastic Mr. Fox is certainly a threat here, and were I willing to go out on a limb, it would be my wildcard choice this year to go against the grain. But ultimately, I don't think Up will be the Pixar film voters finally choose to shun.

Winner: Up
Surprise: Fantastic Mr. Fox


As for shorts, my money would be on The Door, A Matter of Loaf and Death, and The Last Truck. It looks like The Hurt Locker will not only be the lowest grossing winner ever, but also one with only 3 wins. Hopefully it will win 1 or 2 more than that, and if it does, it will be pretty clear that a Best Picture win is inevitable. Still, I can't help but wonder how, if at all, the preferential voting will affect the outcome.

Shutter Island

Shutter Island finds Martin Scorsese at his most delightfully unhinged. Having chased the Oscar for the last decade, it is exciting to see him let loose a little bit. With Shutter Island, he marries his visual and thematic styles with a pure horror/thriller picture. Much like he did with Cape Fear twenty years ago, Scorsese is able to mine a great deal of psychological thrills and depth out of what could have been a simple genre picture. While some might be put off by how the film's plot progresses, there is no denying that Scorsese tells this story with appropriate flair and wit.

Two federal marshals - Teddy (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Chuck (Mark Ruffalo) - are sent to an island housing a mental institution to investigate the mysterious disappearance of a patient. From this simple premise, Scorsese weaves an intricate and confounding story of mental illness, memory, and justice. To say that the premise is a bit misleading would be true. The film quickly goes far beyond what the trailer implies, and we realize that film is less about the investigation and more about Teddy. That is a smart choice, as a film of this kind would not work without a great central character to examine in contrast to what is happening around him. Teddy may not be the best character Scorsese has put to screen, but he's certainly one of the more heartbreaking and unsettling.

The fourth collaboration between Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island continues the escalation of DiCaprio's talent as an actor. While many decried the decision for Scorsese to "adopt" DiCaprio all those years ago, it is clear that under Scorsese's tutelage DiCaprio has become one of the most exciting, refined actors working today. Shutter Island represents perhaps his best work to date. The reason it is such a good performance might not be immediately apparent as you are watching, but by film's end you will realize that DiCaprio has had to work on many different levels through the whole film, some too subtle to notice until after the fact. The premise of the film doesn't initially seem to lend itself to a lot of depth for its characters, but DiCaprio is able to mine some great material out of Teddy. We learn that his wife died years ago, and the man responsible may also be on the island. DiCaprio plays Teddy as a man just this side of unhinged, so we aren't sure what will happen when he finds who he looking for. Add to this the fact that he has nightmares of his time in World War II and the death of his wife, and Teddy seems to be just as damaged as some of the patients on the island.

Scorsese has crafted a film that is in full service of his central character, not the mystery at hand. What we get is a waking nightmare of a film. The editing is often off by a few beats to throw us off, the music is ludicrously overbearing, the art direction is engrossing and haunting. Teddy is a troubled guy, and Scorsese doesn't shy away from that. Perhaps most interesting is the way he will blend the past and present for Teddy, like creating nightmares of Dachau that are filled with modern details and characters. Much like Teddy, we are always on edge, our nerves a bit frayed. We are just as afraid of what's around the next corner as the characters are.

If the film can be faulted, and I suspect it will be by many, it is in the end. I would agree that the end is problematic, but not for the reason many would claim. I had no problem with the direction the plot went in as the film wrapped up, but with how it was told. When a character had to break out a white board with information on it pertaining to what was happening, it was clear that Scorsese was concerned that his audience might not buy what he was selling. On top of that, we get an extended flashback that is used to seal the deal. While this scene features perhaps the best moments of acting on two actors' parts, it still felt extraneous. The film should be quickly rapping up with its final revelation, not reveling in it. But then, it's clear that a major influence here is Hitchcock, and Hitch ended his most famous movie with a similarly long denouement explaining a character's mental history, so perhaps it is intended as homage. Still, the ending is a small misstep in an otherwise utterly engrossing, haunting, and thrilling movie. Maybe not up the usual classy standards of his more revered films, it fits better with his more bizarre - and I would argue, more rewarding - films like Bringing Out the Dead, Cape Fear, and The King of Comedy. If you like your Scorsese a little rough around edges, this can't be missed.

The Wolfman

Much like the Wolfman himself, Joe Johnston's The Wolfman is a conflicted film that doesn't know what to be. On the one hand, it tries to be a moody period piece in which atmosphere is key. On the other hand, it wants to be a loud and visceral horror film filled with gore. By trying to have it both ways, it achieves neither. It's a shame, too, because the film shows glimmers of promise in both aspects, making its failure all the more frustrating.

Benicio Del Toro plays Lawrence Talbot, a man who has returned home to England in order to investigate the murder of his brother. Shortly thereafter, he is attacked by a werewolf, turning him into the very creature that killed his brother. From a story perspective, The Wolfman does not try to add anything new to the genre. It hits all the notes one would expect from a werewolf picture. What bolsters that, though, are the visual details. The low hanging fog, the unusual sets, and the costumes all evoke a Victorian feel that seems right at home with this kind of Gothic horror. Though, strangely enough, the cinematography is terrible. At times everything is so horribly lit, you aren't sure what to look at. Early on, for example, two characters in the foreground are talking about someone in the background. The person farther away is - naturally - out of focus. Yet the closer two having the conversation are back lit and thus also inscrutable. It's just one example of what was often unforgivably bad cinematography.

But most of you don't go to a horror film for the cinematography: you go for the thrills. Which The Wolfman has... occasionally. When the blood starts to flow, it gets pretty gruesome. Limbs fly left and right, viscera litters the floor. But those moments come few and far between. Instead, we get long character beats that go nowhere, failing to either flesh out the characters beyond stock types, nor adding any connection to these people that will have to make hard decisions later in the film. When the violence does happen, it is all the more rewarding because we've sat through so much nonsense.

What also disappoints are the ways the film tries to scare the audience. Often director Joe Johnston resorts to the cheapest possible tactics to make his audience jump. Overly loud noises and things popping into frame are this film's bread and butter. At one point, a character wakes up and sees some sort of Gollum-like creature at the foot of his bed for no reason, only to really wake up. This is bad on two levels: resorting to dream sequences to create fake dramatic tension never work, and by having a creature never seen anywhere else in the film suddenly show up simply because it is creepy looking is ridiculous. And this happens a couple times throughout the film. Maybe I just don't know enough about werewolves, but are they known for having bad dreams about Tolkien characters?

The acting is very hit or miss, but I don't think that is entirely the fault of the actors. Benicio Del Toro seems like a great choice to play a tormented werewolf, but the script and the director let him down. He has nothing to work with, and as a result he becomes an afterthought in his own movie. Anthony Hopkins needs someone who can guide and restrain him in films like this, and Johnston is not up to that task. Hopkins sleepwalks through the film without giving any choices he makes as an actor a second thought. But then, about a third of the way into the film, Hugo Weaving shows up and decides to steal the movie from everyone else. As a Scotland Yard investigator he is funny, commanding, and strange - the exact kind of thing you would expect from a Wolfman movie! While he also has little to work with, he tries his hardest to make it all enjoyable, and comes closest to pulling it off.

Considering the werewolf genre has been so under utilized of recent years, its shocking just how tired The Wolfman feels. Had it gone for straight gore thrills, or for pure atmosphere, it might have worked. Instead, we get a hodgepodge of cheap shocks, dull speeches, and under developed characters. A film that pulls off this kind of horror so much better is Tim Burton's Sleepy Hollow. If you go in to The Wolfman expecting a good horror film, you will be very disappointed - and kind of bored.

And The Nominees Are

It's Oscar time again! Some initial reactions to the nominees:

• I keep flipping back and forth about the 10 issue. On the on hand, we get dreck like The Blind Side. On the other, my top 3 favorite films of 2009 are all BP nominees, something that's never happened before.
  
• Also worth noting, you get films like A Serious Man and The Blind Side as Best Picture nominees with only 2 total noms.
  
• A lot more autopilot noms this year than normal: Cruz, Damon, Mirren, Freeman. I was really disappointed with the acting nominations in general this year, although there were a few pleasant surprises (Maggie Gyllenhaal).
  
• It's nice, after the last 2 years, to have an actual race for Best Picture. Granted, one of the 2 big contenders is a bland summer blockbuster masquerading as quality cinema, but I prefer excitement in my Oscars!
  
• You did it Pixar!
  

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Avatar
  
• The Blind Side
  
• District 9
  
• An Education
  
• The Hurt Locker
  
• Inglourious Basterds
  
• Precious
  
• A Serious Man
  
• Up
  
• Up In The Air
  

Which ones I've seen: Much like last year with The Reader, I got a last minute hunch and forced myself to watch The Blind Side yesterday. It's as awful as expected, but I have seen all ten.

Who should win: Inglourious Basterds

Who will win: The Hurt Locker seems like it is in the lead, but no movie has won BP with that small of a gross. The fact it tied for most nominations is a good sign, though.

Possible upsets? Avatar is just as much as in the running, so it wouldn't be a surprise (but it would be upsetting...)


Best Director

Nominees:

• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
  
• James Cameron - Avatar
  
• Lee Daniels - Precious
  
• Jason Reitman - Up In The Air
  
• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
  

Which ones I've seen: All five (with the ten in place, will we ever see a lone director again?)

Who should win: Tarantino, though Reitman and Bigelow would not bother me at all.

Who will win: Bigelow will go down as the first woman to win Best Director, something long overdue.

Possible upsets? Again, it's a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Cameron already has his Oscar, so hopefully they will pass him over. The sheer size of his film may garner him a lot of votes, though.


Best Actor

Nominees:

• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
  
• George Clooney - Up In The Air
  
• Colin Firth - A Single Man
  
• Morgan Freeman - Invictus
  
• Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Firth

Who should win: Clooney has never blown me away as an actor because he usually plays the same part in most films, but here he makes that signature style work in perfect service of his film.

Who will win: Jeff Bridges. I wasn't amazed by his work in Crazy Heart, but as a career achievement award of sorts, I can't argue: he's a great actor.

Possible upsets? I really don't see any, but perhaps Renner if they love The Hurt Locker a little too much.


Best Actress

Nominees:

• Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
  
• Helen Mirren - The Last Station
  
• Carey Mulligan - An Education
  
• Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
  
• Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Mirren

Who should win: It's funny, but the two front runners are the two worst performances here. I'd prefer to see Sidibe win, but Mulligan would be just as nice.

Who will win: I think it's Bullock's year. I don't understand it, but that's fine.

Possible upsets? The perennial question; when will Streep win another Oscar? The only reason she isn't leading this race anymore is because she already won twice. Were it not for that, she would have no problem beating Bullock.


Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Matt Damon - Invictus
  
• Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
  
• Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
  
• Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
  
• Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Plummer. Seriously, I live in Hollywood, it shouldn't be that hard to find The Last Station and A Single Man at a nearby theater, and yet it is.

Who should win: What an awful line-up. Thankfully, the one brilliant performance will win: Waltz.

Who will win: Christoph Waltz has this locked up.

Possible upsets? Woody Harrelson is the only other deserving person here, and he is long overdue for some serious recognition.


Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Penelope Cruz - Nine
  
• Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air
  
• Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
  
• Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
  
• Mo'Nique - Precious
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Nine. I don't think I will rectify that.

Who should win: I don't know where Mo'Nique found it in her to give that performance, but that Oscar has been hers for a while now.

Who will win: Mo'Nique

Possible upsets? Wow, I honestly don't see any threat here. The Up girls will steal votes from each other and Cruz won last year, so maybe Gyllenhaal?


All in all, not too many surprises this year, which I think we have the 10 to blame. Still, when films like Up and District 9 can get Picture nominations, it's not all bad. We'll see if this sticks around for a while, or if they ditch it in a few years. But they definitely achieved what they set out to do, with five $100 million films in the lineup, and Up in the Air likely to join them thanks to it's awards tally today.

Nominations Tally

Avatar - 9
The Hurt Locker - 9
Inglourious Basterds - 8
Precious - 6
Up in the Air - 6
Up - 5
District 9 - 4
Nine - 4
Star Trek - 4