Another Year, Another Oscar

Wow - in the five years I've been predicting the winners I've never done this poorly, getting only 12 correct. I guess that's the price one must pay to get an unpredictable Oscar ceremony. So two years in a row a movie wins Best Picture that sounds nothing like a Best Picture. Hopefully this is the sign of a changing Academy, perhaps trying to make up for the almost unanimously awful choices made in the 90's. While No Country for Old Men may not be my favorite film of the bunch, it is the only one that feels right in my mind as BP, so it was ultimately satisfying to see it win, especially over such films as Juno and Michael Clayton. And the Coens winning is a wonderful thing.

• Once winning Best Song was the highlight. They gave a great performance, and to see Jon Stewart bring Marketa back on stage to finish her speech was truly classy. The crowd clearly loved Once (or at least, Laura Linney did), as evidenced by the cheering every time the film was mentioned.
  
• Speaking of Stewart, he did as good of a job hosting as he did last time. To some that is a good thing, to others a bad thing. Personally I think he is the best host the Academy has come across in years, and while some jokes fell flat early on, he hit a stride and really entertained.
• The Transformers shutout and Bourne Ultimatum sweep were both pretty surprising. Especially when The Golden Compass won Visual Effects. Huh? I think it's clear voters are ready to embrace Paul Greengrass in a big way, all he has to do is make another Oscar friendly film.
• Had No Country not won so many precursors, it would have been impossible to gauge momentum leading up to the final two categories. No films felt like they were really gaining momentum, and No Country won its first awards early on, so it felt like the film had been forgotten two hors later.
  
• Yet again, the Best Picture doesn't win more than 4 awards, a trend now 4 years old. I like to see the wealth spread out a bit, but surely we can get a film worthy of 6 or 7 wins in 2008, right?

After last year's surprise filled ceremony with some truly wonderful wins, this year felt a little down - probably because my favorite film didn't win this year, unlike the last two years (yes, I'm the guy who liked Crash more than Brokeback). And I suppose I can take solace in the fact that this was probably the last time I'm going to see Diablo Cody on a stage getting an award. Goodbye 2007, here's to the films of 2008!

Oscars: Final Predictions

What started off as a highly unpredictable Oscar season has now become a bit ho-hum; at least in the big categories. The tech categories, however, are proving to be some of the most difficult to predict in recent memory - in part because the choices are all so good. I don't think I've seen a cinematography lineup as amazing as the one we have this year, for example. In making predictions it's important to remember one thing: the obvious choice is usually the right one. The more you think about a category, the harder it is to pick a winner. After the victors are announced it's generally pretty easy to look back and see how clear the majority of the winners were. So with that said, here we go with the final Oscar predictions for 2008.

Picture

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The clear winner is No Country. However, this is where that second guessing can screw you up. Juno seems to have a lot going for it: it's the only blockbuster in the bunch, it's the easiest to enjoy, it's not as dark as the others. But the reality of it is is that Juno would only be winning one other award and it seems very unlikely that Best Picture only gets one other award. No Country has swept the guild awards the way no film since Return of the King has, so it seems unlikely it will suddenly be shunned. It doesn't scream Best Picture, but then, what Best Picture really has these last four or five years?

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: Juno

Actor

• George Cloooney - Michael Clayton
  
• Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
  
• Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
  
• Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
  
• Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
  

This one is wrapped up. Day-Lewis has given one of the great performances of film in There Will Be Blood, and he simply cannot be denied a second Oscar. His greatest threat will certainly be Clooney, who plays the most likable guy of the bunch. But the fact that Day-Lewis plays a monster of a man shouldn't really matter: last year Forest Whitaker won for playing a monster. So long as the actor does an amazing job, it doesn't matter how unlikable of a character they are playing. And Depp: you'll win someday.

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Surprise: George Clooney

Actress

• Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• Julie Christie - Away From Her
  
• Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
  
• Laura Linney - The Savages
  
• Ellen Page - Juno
  

This is the first category with some potential for surprises. It seems to be a three-way race between Christie, Cotillard, and Page. Page has the benefit of being in the most widely seen movie, but I suspect the nature of the film and her age will cause voters to look for an alternative. Cotillard is the unlucky nominee to be in a foreign language film, meaning people will find it harder to bring themselves to vote for her due to the language barrier. I suspect that Christie will win here for her sympathetic portrayal of a woman with Alzheimer's. However, if Juno turns out to have more loyalty than I expected, Page could be the threat.

Winner: Julie Christie
Surprise: Ellen Page

Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  
• Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
  
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
  
• Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
  
• Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
  

Were Into the Wild a more widely loved movie by the academy I would be choosing Holbrook to go against the grain. Time and again this category has gone to the elder actor who commands a great deal of respect but no previous Oscars (Alan Arkin, Morgan Freeman, etc). But the near complete shunning of the film tells me that Holbrook stands little chance to pull it off. Which means that everyone's favorite psychopath will win. Javier Bardem has gotten all the attention this season and it looks like his performance will go down as the new Hannibal Lecter. It doesn't hurt that Bardem is seen as a widely respected foreign actor with a great future ahead of him.

Winner: Javier Bardem
Surprise: Hal Holbrook

Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
  
• Ruby Dee - American Gangster
  
• Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
• Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
  
• Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
  

This one is wide open, don't believe the Blanchett hype. Yes she's the most famous of the group and the Weinstein's are pushing hard for the win, but the fact is that Blanchett has won very few precursors. Amy Ryan took a vast majority of the precursors, shocking everyone who thought Blanchett was the lock. Ryan seemed to be the frontrunner until the nominations came out, and suddenly everyone reverted back to their mindset before the precursors, claiming it is Blanchett's to lose. Add on top of this the surprise SAG win for Ruby Dee and the BAFTA win for Swinton and you have a thoroughly confusing category. Ronan is the also ran, and I suspect Swinton won't pick up enough steam. The only reason I even consider Blanchett a threat is her stardom. I honestly think it will come down to Dee and Ryan. Dee has the much smaller and less significant part, but she is a veteran many feel should have been nominated before. But Ryan gave the best performance of the five and I predict that the voters will recognize that.

Winner: Amy Ryan
Surprise: Ruby Dee

Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
  
• Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
  
• Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
  
• Jason Reitman - Juno
  
• Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
  

The Coens will be the first director duo to win the Oscar since West Side Story in the 60's. They have the right combination of industry respect, a great film, and lack of major competition. The only one who seems to be a threat is Schnabel, whose film has garnered a number of directing wins. But how many times has a director won without his film being nominated for Picture? And while I suspect that Diving Bell was the runner up for the Best Picture lineup, I don't think he will be able to quite pull it off. Anderson also did an amazing job, but I think that voters are going to make him really work to get his first directing win.

Winner: The Coens
Surprise: Julian Schnabel

Original Screenplay

• Juno
• Lars and the Real Girl
  
• Michael Clayton
  
• Ratatouille
• The Savages

At this point in the race I don't like to harp on the nominees too much anymore: they are what they are. That said, I still think this is the worst lineup for any category this year. There were plenty of great original screenplays this year and we ended up with three mediocre ones, a truly awful one, and only one great one. Of course the great one stands no chance (Ratatouille) and the worst one will win (Juno). It's all about flavor of the moment. Michael Clayton was a bit overrated but could pull off the win. Not really, though. It's Juno's one award on Oscar night. Enjoy it, Diablo Cody.

Winner: Juno
Surprise: Michael Clayton

Adapted Screenplay

• Atonement
• Away From Her
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

If PT Anderson is going to win an award it will be here. He is seen as a writer first and foremost (silly considering how well directed There Will Be Blood was). However I think this is yet another place for the Coens to claim victory. I have a hard time imagining The Diving Bell going home empty handed, however, so this is one of two places I suspect it could surprise. Because really, can the Coens honestly win four awards in one night? Apiece? I don't see the Academy doling out that many awards to two people, so if the Coens are going to slip, this is one of the two places (though not as likely as the other one I'm going to predict).

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Cinematography

• The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Atonement
• The Dinving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for old Men
• There Will Be Blood

In my opinion this is the hardest category to predict. Last year the winner seemed so obvious yet the loss to Pan's Labyrinth opened my eyes to how voting really works. The people who work in each category nominate the five films, but everyone votes on the eventual winner. That means that in tech categories it goes to the favorite film, not the most deserving in the category. So Jesse James has already lost. As has Atonement in all likelihood. The other three could all win. I'm going to go ahead and call it for No Country due to the fact that people will be in favor of it the most of the five. I have a very strong suspicion, though, that this is where Diving Bell will win. I haven't seen it but I've heard great things about the cinematography. But can a foreign film really win this category two years in a row? I'm saying no, but this is the one category I have the biggest suspicion of being wrong in.

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Into the Wild
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The one place I think the Coens are vulnerable. They are nominated for Picture, Directing, Writing, and Editing (under a pseudonym). I know they won't win all four but I don't know which one they will lose. Since they seem a lock for the big two, I think it will be either writing or editing that they lose in. That said, I still am going to predict them for the win here to cover my bases. The big threat, surprisingly, seems to be The Bourne Ultimatum for its flashy, in your face editing. Voters may feel reluctant to award a fictional person an award, which may be the final undoing of the Coens here. On a side note, voters seem really willing to embrace Paul Greengrass's films, and I suspect he has an Oscar or two in the future waiting for him.

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Bourne Ultimatum

Art Direction

• American Gangster
• Atonement
• The Golden Compass
• Sweeney Todd
• There Will Be Blood

The one place Tim Burton films always shine is in Art Direction. That said, I think that There Will Be Blood will win at least one more award besides acting, so this seems the likely place. The oil derrick alone is an amazing feat and likely worthy of a win. The other nominees don't really even stand a chance.

Winner: There Will Be Blood
Surprise: Sweeney Todd

Costumes

• Across the Universe
• Atonement
• Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• La Vie En Rose
• Sweeney Todd

This one is almost as hard as Cinematography, but for different reasons. I know little about costuming, and the winner here is often very weird. My heart says Sweeney Todd, but I think Atonement could pose a threat simply for that green dress. Elizabeth, however, is that kind of weird nominee that always seems to win. I'll go with my heart here, but I think Elizabeth could prove to be that one winner of the night that causes everyone says "huh?"

Winner: Sweeney Todd
Surprise: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Sound Mixing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• No Country for Old Men
• Ratatouille
• 3:10 to Yuma
• Transformers

Perhaps the hardest two categories to understand are the sound ones. What's the difference, one might ask. The fact that four nominees cross over between the two further confuses things. I suspect the winner here will be Transformers, not because voters necessarily think it's the best, but because it means that Kevin O'Connell will finally win after 20 nominations with no win. That said, No Country has a complex and unique sound design that warrants an award and if the film ends up sweeping things, it could cause O'Connell to go 0 for 20.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: No Country for Old Men

Sound Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• No Country for Old Men
• Ratatouille
• There Will Be Blood
• Transformers

I feel a bit more confident in calling it for Transformers here. This one is more about sound effects than the design, and being that giant robots provide a great deal of potential for sound effects, it seems likely to win. I could see Ratatouille sneaking in here as well. The film has a lot of love (5 nominations, the second most for an animated film ever). Still I think the sound branch will fail to justify the need for two categories by giving both awards to the same film.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: Ratatouille

Visual Effects

• The Golden Compass
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
• Transformers

Yes, I am going to predict a clean sweep for Transformers, going 3 for 3. This is the one category, however, in which it has no competition. It simply is the best of the three, unqualified. The Pirates franchise have their win already and Golden Compass was DOA. Perhaps the easiest pick of the evening.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Makeup

• La Vie En Rose
• Norbit
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

What an unusual lineup. The Pirates movies have been shunned here in the past, so I can't see them suddenly winning. And really, Norbit? Yes they did a great job of making fat suits, but who in good conscience could vote to make that film an Oscar winner? So I say La Vie En Rose by default.

Winner: La Vie En Rose
Surprise: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Song

• "Falling Slowly" - Once
  
• "Happy Working Song" - Enchanted
  
• "Raise It Up" - August Rush
  
• "So Close" - Enchanted
  
• "That's How You Know" - Enchanted
  

The one category I have a real investment in. The best song is "Falling Slowly." It may be perhaps the best song nominated in this category in many, many years. The music branch has, lately, seemed to go for the right song - the one that has something to do with the film, and not just a good or fun song. The three Enchanted songs are all simply fun songs that don't really help tell the story. Plus they will almost certainly split votes from each other. And who saw August Rush? I doubt it gets many votes, even if its song is very different from the other four. If Once fails here I will be heartbroken. It's the most deserving win in any category in the ceremony.

Winner: "Falling Slowly"
Surprise: "That's How You Know"

Score

• Atonement
• The Kite Runner
• Michael Clayton
• Ratatouille
• 3:10 to Yuma

Because Johnny Greenwood was arbitrarily disqualified at the last second, there is now no challenger to Atonement. It is this year's Babel: a bunch of nominations, but only one win: music. And it is definitely deserving. The music is an integral part of the story. I'm glad to see Michael Giacchino get his first nomination for Ratatouille, but it probably is a little too offbeat for the tastes of voters.

Winner: Atonement
Surprise: Ratatouille

Documentary

• No End In Sight
• Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
• Sicko
• Taxi to the Dark Side
• War/Dance

I'm not very familiar with most of these. I suspect that the winner will be No End in Sight because it is the most scholarly (read: unbiased) of the five, providing an in depth and thoughtful analysis on the Iraq War. If anyone could take it from that film, it's probably Sicko. I think that voters are a little tired of Moore, however, and will want to look elsewhere. That said, it's the most different of the bunch and far more easy to enjoy.

Winner: No End in Sight
Surprise: Sicko

Foreign

• Beaufort
• The Counterfeiters
• Katyn
• Mongol
• 12

Again, I know little about these films. That said, I knew a whole lot more about the numerous foreign films not nominated. There was a lot of talk this year about how ridiculous this category became with the constant disqualification of numerous frontrunners. Not to hold anything against these five, as I am unfamiliar with most. That said, I have heard the most buzz about The Counterfeiters, which has to do with the Holocaust. 12 is a remake of sorts of 12 Angry Men, so it could get some nostalgia votes.

Winner: The Counterfeiters
Surprise: 12

Animated

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf's Up

It seems clear that voters liked Ratatouille. A lot. In any other year I think that Persepolis could have really challenged the Pixar film, but there seems to be too much steam behind the rat for it to not win any of its five nominations.



So No Country for Old Men looks to be making a near sweep with 6 wins, a healthy amount and more than any recent Best Pictures. While I didn't love the film, it is the one that sits best with me of the five as the eternal Best Picture representative for 2007. And it's cool to see the Coens suddenly getting the love they've deserved for so many years. Just as long as Juno doesn't win. That would be a disaster.