Oscars: Final Predictions

What started off as a highly unpredictable Oscar season has now become a bit ho-hum; at least in the big categories. The tech categories, however, are proving to be some of the most difficult to predict in recent memory - in part because the choices are all so good. I don't think I've seen a cinematography lineup as amazing as the one we have this year, for example. In making predictions it's important to remember one thing: the obvious choice is usually the right one. The more you think about a category, the harder it is to pick a winner. After the victors are announced it's generally pretty easy to look back and see how clear the majority of the winners were. So with that said, here we go with the final Oscar predictions for 2008.

Picture

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The clear winner is No Country. However, this is where that second guessing can screw you up. Juno seems to have a lot going for it: it's the only blockbuster in the bunch, it's the easiest to enjoy, it's not as dark as the others. But the reality of it is is that Juno would only be winning one other award and it seems very unlikely that Best Picture only gets one other award. No Country has swept the guild awards the way no film since Return of the King has, so it seems unlikely it will suddenly be shunned. It doesn't scream Best Picture, but then, what Best Picture really has these last four or five years?

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: Juno

Actor

• George Cloooney - Michael Clayton
  
• Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
  
• Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
  
• Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
  
• Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
  

This one is wrapped up. Day-Lewis has given one of the great performances of film in There Will Be Blood, and he simply cannot be denied a second Oscar. His greatest threat will certainly be Clooney, who plays the most likable guy of the bunch. But the fact that Day-Lewis plays a monster of a man shouldn't really matter: last year Forest Whitaker won for playing a monster. So long as the actor does an amazing job, it doesn't matter how unlikable of a character they are playing. And Depp: you'll win someday.

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Surprise: George Clooney

Actress

• Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• Julie Christie - Away From Her
  
• Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
  
• Laura Linney - The Savages
  
• Ellen Page - Juno
  

This is the first category with some potential for surprises. It seems to be a three-way race between Christie, Cotillard, and Page. Page has the benefit of being in the most widely seen movie, but I suspect the nature of the film and her age will cause voters to look for an alternative. Cotillard is the unlucky nominee to be in a foreign language film, meaning people will find it harder to bring themselves to vote for her due to the language barrier. I suspect that Christie will win here for her sympathetic portrayal of a woman with Alzheimer's. However, if Juno turns out to have more loyalty than I expected, Page could be the threat.

Winner: Julie Christie
Surprise: Ellen Page

Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  
• Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
  
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
  
• Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
  
• Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
  

Were Into the Wild a more widely loved movie by the academy I would be choosing Holbrook to go against the grain. Time and again this category has gone to the elder actor who commands a great deal of respect but no previous Oscars (Alan Arkin, Morgan Freeman, etc). But the near complete shunning of the film tells me that Holbrook stands little chance to pull it off. Which means that everyone's favorite psychopath will win. Javier Bardem has gotten all the attention this season and it looks like his performance will go down as the new Hannibal Lecter. It doesn't hurt that Bardem is seen as a widely respected foreign actor with a great future ahead of him.

Winner: Javier Bardem
Surprise: Hal Holbrook

Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
  
• Ruby Dee - American Gangster
  
• Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
• Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
  
• Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
  

This one is wide open, don't believe the Blanchett hype. Yes she's the most famous of the group and the Weinstein's are pushing hard for the win, but the fact is that Blanchett has won very few precursors. Amy Ryan took a vast majority of the precursors, shocking everyone who thought Blanchett was the lock. Ryan seemed to be the frontrunner until the nominations came out, and suddenly everyone reverted back to their mindset before the precursors, claiming it is Blanchett's to lose. Add on top of this the surprise SAG win for Ruby Dee and the BAFTA win for Swinton and you have a thoroughly confusing category. Ronan is the also ran, and I suspect Swinton won't pick up enough steam. The only reason I even consider Blanchett a threat is her stardom. I honestly think it will come down to Dee and Ryan. Dee has the much smaller and less significant part, but she is a veteran many feel should have been nominated before. But Ryan gave the best performance of the five and I predict that the voters will recognize that.

Winner: Amy Ryan
Surprise: Ruby Dee

Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
  
• Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
  
• Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
  
• Jason Reitman - Juno
  
• Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
  

The Coens will be the first director duo to win the Oscar since West Side Story in the 60's. They have the right combination of industry respect, a great film, and lack of major competition. The only one who seems to be a threat is Schnabel, whose film has garnered a number of directing wins. But how many times has a director won without his film being nominated for Picture? And while I suspect that Diving Bell was the runner up for the Best Picture lineup, I don't think he will be able to quite pull it off. Anderson also did an amazing job, but I think that voters are going to make him really work to get his first directing win.

Winner: The Coens
Surprise: Julian Schnabel

Original Screenplay

• Juno
• Lars and the Real Girl
  
• Michael Clayton
  
• Ratatouille
• The Savages

At this point in the race I don't like to harp on the nominees too much anymore: they are what they are. That said, I still think this is the worst lineup for any category this year. There were plenty of great original screenplays this year and we ended up with three mediocre ones, a truly awful one, and only one great one. Of course the great one stands no chance (Ratatouille) and the worst one will win (Juno). It's all about flavor of the moment. Michael Clayton was a bit overrated but could pull off the win. Not really, though. It's Juno's one award on Oscar night. Enjoy it, Diablo Cody.

Winner: Juno
Surprise: Michael Clayton

Adapted Screenplay

• Atonement
• Away From Her
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

If PT Anderson is going to win an award it will be here. He is seen as a writer first and foremost (silly considering how well directed There Will Be Blood was). However I think this is yet another place for the Coens to claim victory. I have a hard time imagining The Diving Bell going home empty handed, however, so this is one of two places I suspect it could surprise. Because really, can the Coens honestly win four awards in one night? Apiece? I don't see the Academy doling out that many awards to two people, so if the Coens are going to slip, this is one of the two places (though not as likely as the other one I'm going to predict).

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Cinematography

• The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Atonement
• The Dinving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for old Men
• There Will Be Blood

In my opinion this is the hardest category to predict. Last year the winner seemed so obvious yet the loss to Pan's Labyrinth opened my eyes to how voting really works. The people who work in each category nominate the five films, but everyone votes on the eventual winner. That means that in tech categories it goes to the favorite film, not the most deserving in the category. So Jesse James has already lost. As has Atonement in all likelihood. The other three could all win. I'm going to go ahead and call it for No Country due to the fact that people will be in favor of it the most of the five. I have a very strong suspicion, though, that this is where Diving Bell will win. I haven't seen it but I've heard great things about the cinematography. But can a foreign film really win this category two years in a row? I'm saying no, but this is the one category I have the biggest suspicion of being wrong in.

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Into the Wild
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

The one place I think the Coens are vulnerable. They are nominated for Picture, Directing, Writing, and Editing (under a pseudonym). I know they won't win all four but I don't know which one they will lose. Since they seem a lock for the big two, I think it will be either writing or editing that they lose in. That said, I still am going to predict them for the win here to cover my bases. The big threat, surprisingly, seems to be The Bourne Ultimatum for its flashy, in your face editing. Voters may feel reluctant to award a fictional person an award, which may be the final undoing of the Coens here. On a side note, voters seem really willing to embrace Paul Greengrass's films, and I suspect he has an Oscar or two in the future waiting for him.

Winner: No Country for Old Men
Surprise: The Bourne Ultimatum

Art Direction

• American Gangster
• Atonement
• The Golden Compass
• Sweeney Todd
• There Will Be Blood

The one place Tim Burton films always shine is in Art Direction. That said, I think that There Will Be Blood will win at least one more award besides acting, so this seems the likely place. The oil derrick alone is an amazing feat and likely worthy of a win. The other nominees don't really even stand a chance.

Winner: There Will Be Blood
Surprise: Sweeney Todd

Costumes

• Across the Universe
• Atonement
• Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• La Vie En Rose
• Sweeney Todd

This one is almost as hard as Cinematography, but for different reasons. I know little about costuming, and the winner here is often very weird. My heart says Sweeney Todd, but I think Atonement could pose a threat simply for that green dress. Elizabeth, however, is that kind of weird nominee that always seems to win. I'll go with my heart here, but I think Elizabeth could prove to be that one winner of the night that causes everyone says "huh?"

Winner: Sweeney Todd
Surprise: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Sound Mixing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• No Country for Old Men
• Ratatouille
• 3:10 to Yuma
• Transformers

Perhaps the hardest two categories to understand are the sound ones. What's the difference, one might ask. The fact that four nominees cross over between the two further confuses things. I suspect the winner here will be Transformers, not because voters necessarily think it's the best, but because it means that Kevin O'Connell will finally win after 20 nominations with no win. That said, No Country has a complex and unique sound design that warrants an award and if the film ends up sweeping things, it could cause O'Connell to go 0 for 20.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: No Country for Old Men

Sound Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum
• No Country for Old Men
• Ratatouille
• There Will Be Blood
• Transformers

I feel a bit more confident in calling it for Transformers here. This one is more about sound effects than the design, and being that giant robots provide a great deal of potential for sound effects, it seems likely to win. I could see Ratatouille sneaking in here as well. The film has a lot of love (5 nominations, the second most for an animated film ever). Still I think the sound branch will fail to justify the need for two categories by giving both awards to the same film.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: Ratatouille

Visual Effects

• The Golden Compass
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
• Transformers

Yes, I am going to predict a clean sweep for Transformers, going 3 for 3. This is the one category, however, in which it has no competition. It simply is the best of the three, unqualified. The Pirates franchise have their win already and Golden Compass was DOA. Perhaps the easiest pick of the evening.

Winner: Transformers
Surprise: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Makeup

• La Vie En Rose
• Norbit
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

What an unusual lineup. The Pirates movies have been shunned here in the past, so I can't see them suddenly winning. And really, Norbit? Yes they did a great job of making fat suits, but who in good conscience could vote to make that film an Oscar winner? So I say La Vie En Rose by default.

Winner: La Vie En Rose
Surprise: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Song

• "Falling Slowly" - Once
  
• "Happy Working Song" - Enchanted
  
• "Raise It Up" - August Rush
  
• "So Close" - Enchanted
  
• "That's How You Know" - Enchanted
  

The one category I have a real investment in. The best song is "Falling Slowly." It may be perhaps the best song nominated in this category in many, many years. The music branch has, lately, seemed to go for the right song - the one that has something to do with the film, and not just a good or fun song. The three Enchanted songs are all simply fun songs that don't really help tell the story. Plus they will almost certainly split votes from each other. And who saw August Rush? I doubt it gets many votes, even if its song is very different from the other four. If Once fails here I will be heartbroken. It's the most deserving win in any category in the ceremony.

Winner: "Falling Slowly"
Surprise: "That's How You Know"

Score

• Atonement
• The Kite Runner
• Michael Clayton
• Ratatouille
• 3:10 to Yuma

Because Johnny Greenwood was arbitrarily disqualified at the last second, there is now no challenger to Atonement. It is this year's Babel: a bunch of nominations, but only one win: music. And it is definitely deserving. The music is an integral part of the story. I'm glad to see Michael Giacchino get his first nomination for Ratatouille, but it probably is a little too offbeat for the tastes of voters.

Winner: Atonement
Surprise: Ratatouille

Documentary

• No End In Sight
• Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
• Sicko
• Taxi to the Dark Side
• War/Dance

I'm not very familiar with most of these. I suspect that the winner will be No End in Sight because it is the most scholarly (read: unbiased) of the five, providing an in depth and thoughtful analysis on the Iraq War. If anyone could take it from that film, it's probably Sicko. I think that voters are a little tired of Moore, however, and will want to look elsewhere. That said, it's the most different of the bunch and far more easy to enjoy.

Winner: No End in Sight
Surprise: Sicko

Foreign

• Beaufort
• The Counterfeiters
• Katyn
• Mongol
• 12

Again, I know little about these films. That said, I knew a whole lot more about the numerous foreign films not nominated. There was a lot of talk this year about how ridiculous this category became with the constant disqualification of numerous frontrunners. Not to hold anything against these five, as I am unfamiliar with most. That said, I have heard the most buzz about The Counterfeiters, which has to do with the Holocaust. 12 is a remake of sorts of 12 Angry Men, so it could get some nostalgia votes.

Winner: The Counterfeiters
Surprise: 12

Animated

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf's Up

It seems clear that voters liked Ratatouille. A lot. In any other year I think that Persepolis could have really challenged the Pixar film, but there seems to be too much steam behind the rat for it to not win any of its five nominations.



So No Country for Old Men looks to be making a near sweep with 6 wins, a healthy amount and more than any recent Best Pictures. While I didn't love the film, it is the one that sits best with me of the five as the eternal Best Picture representative for 2007. And it's cool to see the Coens suddenly getting the love they've deserved for so many years. Just as long as Juno doesn't win. That would be a disaster.

RIP Heath Ledger

It's being reported that today we lost a gifted actor. Heath Ledger, who was only 28, has reportedly been found dead in New York. I am simply stunned by this. He was clearly on track to have a long and memorable career.

The first time I ever saw Ledger on screen was in 10 Things I Hate About You, still one of the best teen comedies of the 90's. Amidst a cast of familiar teen faces at the time, he stood out. He moved on to star in such hits as The Patriot with Mel Gibson, A Knight's Tale, and Monster's Ball. But it was clearly 2005 and Brokeback Mountain that proved to be his big break. His Oscar nomination for that film was well deserved, and it seemed inevitable that he was destined for more nominations.

Truth be told, I have only ever seen Ledger in 3 films: 10 Things, Brokeback, and last year's I'm Not There. It was his upcoming film that had me truly excited about the potential he had as an actor. This summer Ledger's final film role will be that of The Joker in The Dark Knight, which I recently picked as my most anticipated film of 2008, in large part thanks to Ledger's performance in the trailer alone. It's truly tragic to see anyone die at such an early age, but it looks like we lost a true rising star today.

And the Nominees Are...

It's that time again: Oscar nominations! A few thoughts:

• Honestly surprised by the complete lack of love for Into the Wild. Only 2 noms. I truly expected it to be a major player this year.
• On the plus side, because Eddie Vedder wasn't nominated for any of his songs, Once now has no real competition for the Best Song win. Enchanted screwed itself over by submitting so many songs, as with 3 nominations it will be splitting its own votes in a big way.
• I was holding out hope for a surprise nomination for Tim Burton, but alas he was shut out.
• Surf's Up over The Simpsons Movie?
• The frontrunners for Best Picture appear to be No Country for Old Men and There Will be Blood, each with 8 nominations.

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Atonement
• Juno
• Michael Clayton
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will be Blood

Which ones I've seen: For the first time ever I've seen all five nominees before nominations were announced.
Who should win: There Will be Blood.
Who will win: No Country for Old Men.
Possible upsets? Juno. I have grown to loathe this movie, and I think we will look back at it in a few years and wonder what on Earth we were thinking giving it a Best Picture nomination. Unfortunately it's the kind of movie that inspires brief passion, only to be forgotten by its supporters for the next flashy thing. If it wins that'd be a serious black mark on the Academy's record.



Best Director

Nominees:

• Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will be Blood
  
• Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
  
• Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
• Jason Reitman - Juno
  
• Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Schnabel.
Who should win: I'd be fine with either Anderson or the Coens. The Coens have had such an amazing body of work that even if I was less than impressed with their latest film, they still deserve recognition as two of the finest working filmmakers.
Who will win: Right now I can't imagine anyone beating the Coens.
Possible upsets? If Schnabel weren't the lone director I'd say he has a chance, but without the picture nomination it seems unlikely.



Best Actor

Nominees:

• George Clooney - Michael Clayton
  
• Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will be Blood
  
• Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
  
• Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
  
• Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
  

Which ones I've seen: All but Tommy Lee Jones.
Who should win: Daniel Day-Lewis.
Who will win: Day-Lewis. The man can't be denied here, he's just too amazing.
Possible upsets? The fact is, Day-Lewis plays one awful sonofabitch, and voters may be turned off by that. If so they'd likely turn to Clooney.



Best Actress

Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  
• Julie Christie - Away From Her
  
• Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
  
• Laura Linney - The Savages
  
• Ellen Page - Juno
  

Which ones I've seen: Christie, Linney, and Page. I usually fare poorly with the actress categories.
Who should win: I'm not a big fan of the 3 performances I've seen. Of the three, Christie was the weakest in my opinion. She pretty much just plays off our sympathies for a woman going through Alzheimer's. There's just no real range shown. Page did well but had to deal with atrocious dialog. Linney was fine and she's been solid for years, so I'm going to go with her.
Who will win: Christie. Sigh.
Possible upsets? This could prove to be a fairly wide open category. Cotillard apparently gave an astonishing performance, but because it's in a foreign language it may have to fight to win. Also, if Juno has as much love as I fear, Page could sneak in, although I'm not betting on that yet.



Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
  
• Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
  
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
  
• Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
  
• Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
  

Which ones I've seen: All of the above.
Who should win: I actually liked every performance here, a sharp change from last year. I'd probably have to go with Affleck, however. It's really more of a lead role, but it was pretty amazing.
Who will win: Bardem. The Academy loves their psychopaths.
Possible upsets? I would have said Holbrook, but the disdain for Into the Wild shown by voters makes me doubt it. However, this is the category most likely to go to a veteran, so if anyone can beat Bardem it's old Hal.



Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
  
• Ruby Dee - American Gangster
  
• Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
  
• Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
  
• Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
  

Which ones I've seen: Everyone.
Who should win: Amy Ryan easily.
Who will win: Probably Ryan. This category is friendly to newcomers.
Possible upsets? Blanchett has to be considered a major threat. She's mimicking a famous person (and a man, no less!), and that seems to trump actual acting more often than it should. Plus she's Blanchett.

Overall nominations weren't too surprising considering how wide open the race seemed. This has to be one of the weakest best picture slates in memory, though. The last two years had great lineups, but this year is marred by the pedestrian Clayton and misguided love for Juno. Anyway, here is the final tally of nominations:

• No Country for Old Men - 8
• There Will be Blood - 8
• Atonement - 7
• Michael Clayton - 7
• Ratatouille - 5 (I believe this is the most nominations for an animated film since Beauty and the Beast)
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 4
• Juno - 4
• The Bourne Ultimatum - 3
• Enchanted - 3 (all songs)
• Sweeney Todd - 3
• Transformers - 3
• La Vie En Rose - 3

A Look to 2008

I went into 2007 not anticipating a whole lot of movies. There ended up being a lot of great films, sure, but none really got me buzzing months in advance. 2008, on the other hand, is all about the buzz. There are a lot of big movies coming this year and I thought I'd give you an insight on what I expect to be the most exciting films of 2008. But first, the leftovers.

The Leftovers
These lists pretty much always result in one or two films that don't make the release date. Two films I was excited for last year were Be Kind Rewind and Trick 'r Treat, both of which are now 2008 films. Rewind, from Michel Gondry and starring Jack Black, comes out in just a few short weeks, and the trailer looks just as hilarious as the premise sounds. I'm still not sure if they kept the spoof of Back to the Future in the final product, but I really hope so. Trick, on the other hand, has no set release date, having been suddenly pushed out of its October 2007 release for no reason. A recent screening has resulted in some very strong reviews, calling it the next great Halloween classic, which is exactly why I was so excited for it in the first place. If they're smart, they'll wait until next October to release it. If not and they release it in spring, I think I'll skip it until it's on DVD. It just looks like too perfect of a match for Halloween viewing to waste it on the spring.



10. Star Trek
The idea of rebooting the Star Trek franchise seems like a smart move in light of how well it worked for both Batman and James Bond. I'm not a Trekie, I didn't watch any of the TV shows outside of TNG as a child, and I find the movies to be very hit or miss. But there is a lot of potential in the property, so for some reason I am always very curious to see what direction the franchise goes in. However, the more I hear about this reboot, the more I'm convinced they've gone in the complete wrong direction. The cast reads like some sort of bizarre joke. John Cho as Sulu? Karl Urban as Bones? Simon Pegg as Scotty? That's pretty unanimously awful, and I can only imagine what die hard fans are thinking. Add to that the largely unproven track record of director JJ Abrams (the thing he gets the most street cred for seems to be Lost, in spite of the fact he has almost nothing to do with it), and you have potential for the biggest bomb of the year. But if, by some miracle it does work, I couldn't be happier. Star Trek belongs on the big screen.

9. The Box
What would a year in preview list be without the requisite Richard Kelly film? Southland Tales took up a space on my last three years' lists, so it feels a bit bizarre not to have to talk about it anymore (this will be the last time, I promise). It sounds like Kelly realizes he let Tales get out of control, as his newest effort sounds much simpler and, dare I say it, commercial. It follows a couple who find a man at their door with an offer: press a button in his mysterious box and amass untold wealth. One catch, though - pressing the button means someone they don't know will die. I really hope Kelly is back on his game with this, and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt once more.

8. The Brothers Bloom
In 2006 we got a little film called Brick, which marked the debut of a very promising new filmmaker in Rian Johnson. Here he attempts to follow it up with a film starring Mark Ruffalo and Adrien Brody as two con men, and Rachel Weisz as their target. It sounds pretty simple, but then so did Brick, and that turned out to be brilliant. I know little else about the film, but Johnson has built in a great deal of goodwill with his first picture, and I trust him to deliver the goods here.

7. Iron Man
I really have no preconceived notions about the character of Iron Man. My knowledge of comic book characters is largely limited to the ones who got Saturday morning cartoons in the 90's. That said, the trailers for this have made it look truly entertaining. And whoever thought it was a good idea to cast Robert Downey Jr as Tony Stark/Iron Man deserves a raise. He is one of the best actors working today, and his natural sardonic personality looks to elevate this one above the usual B-level comic book adaptations. My only problem so far is the overuse if the Black Sabbath song "Iron Man." It feels a little too on the nose.

6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
You could probably come up with a list of a number of great directors who are perfect to adapt the F. Scott Fitzgerald love story of a man who ages in reverse, but I suspect David Fincher would not make an appearance on that list. Fincher is really moving outside of his safety zone here, and that could prove very exciting. Lucky for him he has his goto guy Brad Pitt in the lead role. This could prove to be a very fun, fanciful movie, perhaps akin to Big Fish from a few years ago. It will be interesting to see if Fincher uses any of his usual tricks here or if he tries to do something completely unexpected. Whatever else, this sounds like the first Fincher film destined for Oscar consideration.

5. Burn After Reading
I may be in the severe minority, but I was left cold by No Country for Old Men. Luckily the Coen Bros are back already with another film, and it sounds much more akin to past efforts like The Big Lebowski and Raising Arizona. It follows a disgruntled, odious ex-CIA agent (John Malkovich) who decides to write a tell-all memoir. However, when he accidentally leaves the disk containing the memoir at his local gym, he must deal with a dimwitted man (Brad Pitt) who has found it and decided to sell it. It sounds like the perfect combination of high concept plot and sly comedy, and it features such Coen regulars as George Clooney and Frances McDormand. No, it won't be the awards contender No Country has proven to be, but it sure sounds like a lot more fun.

4. Zack and Miri Make a Porno
For the first time ever it looks like Kevin Smith might have a blockbuster on his hands. He has consistently delivered wonderful films for the past decade plus (yes, even Jersey Girl was good, though his weakest effort), so I can't see any reason the streak won't continue here. It doesn't hurt that he has current "It" comedy guy Seth Rogen in the lead. The title kind of says it all, but the premise follows best friends Zack and Miri (Elizabeth Banks) as they decide to create a porno in order to deal with their current financial woes. The usual Smithian dialog will certainly be abound, but filtered through the wonderful charm and charisma of Rogen could make for the funniest film of the year.

3. WALL-E
I usually don't include Pixar films on this list, which is kind of a shame. The fact is, I take for granted how consistently excellent Pixar is. I pretty much don't have to even hear the plot at this point, I'll still go see the movie, so I just don't think about them too much in advance. WALL-E is different. WALL-E is special. Pixar has decided to really try for something unique here, and if it works, it could well be their crowning achievement. WALL-E is a film featuring largely no dialogue. It is about a robot who has been left on Earth hundreds of years after the last human has left for space, and his only job is to clean the planet of all the trash we've left behind. The film follows him as he learns about humans through our trash. One day a space craft arrives, a probe sent to see what ever became of our beloved planet Earth. At this point, WALL-E must decide if he is to stay on Earth and do what he was programmed to do, or leave and do what he has always wanted to do. I really can't explain just how exciting this concept sounds to me, it is so unlike anything else out there that it could stand to shake things up in a big way.

2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
I honestly never really thought I'd see this film come to fruition. With every passing year it just seemed less and less realistic. Yet here we are, the film is shot and awaiting a summer release. Were this a film from any other director, I'd assume it was going to be an awful cash-in on a once wonderful trilogy (Live Free or Die Hard, I'm looking at you). But I just can't imagine Spielberg whoring himself out to such an extreme. He is notoriously against sequels, having only made the Indiana Jones films and The Lost World. So if this project didn't seem up to snuff, I'd like to think he would have vetoed it. The pictures that have been released so far make Ford look young enough to pull it off, so I don't think we need worry about him. The biggest question is whether a series that reveled in old school thrills can work in the age of CGI without conforming. I really hope this doesn't soil the otherwise great trilogy, but I am cautiously optimistic.

1. The Dark Knight
Batman Begins is the best superhero movie ever made. There's no "possibly" or "just about" needed, it is flat out better than anything else. Now here comes the sequel, and it actually looks better. I had my doubts about Heath Ledger as the Joker (I was gunning for Crispin Glover), but the trailer has assuaged my lingering fears. I can't imagine this being anything less than amazing. Batman is my favorite superhero, and it's great to see him get such a wonderful treatment from Christoper Nolan. His take on the Batman world, in which it is all based in reality and not in fantasy, makes this so much more resonant. And I have to give bonus points for the title. For once a studio realizes we aren't idiots and can plainly see this is a Batman film even if the title isn't "Batman." I hate sequel titles that unnecessarily reference the prior film (The Lost World: Jurassic Park. I mean, seriously, WTF).

Who knows how many of these will actually turn out good. And they aren't the only exciting films to be released this year. Also exciting are Cloverfield (a mix between Blair Witch and Godzilla), Son of Rambow (the story of a group of kids who decide to create their own Rambo film), the Will Smith superhero spoof Hancock, the second X-Files movie, the reunion of Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet (and Kathy Bates) in Revolutionary Road, the new Charlie Kaufman film Synecdoche, New York, and the new James Bond film, among others.

Two special notes: I have huge expectations for both Where the Wild Things Are and The Lovely Bones. Both have finished filming, but neither is set for release until early 2009. I suspect one or both could be bumped up, especially if the Oscar season looks shaky this year. The Lovely Bones could easily sneak in at the last minute and steal all the buzz if it's as good as expected. And Wild Things is the loooooong awaited third film from Spike Jonze, whose last two films were my favorites of 1999 and 2002. It's also the adaptation of one of the best children's books ever published. Expect to see both on the list next year if they stay with their current release plans.

2007: Top 10

What a year, what a year...

In 2007 I saw more movies than any other year. I tried my best to see every major film that was released, but ultimately a few slipped through the cracks. Most notable were Lars and the Real Girl, The Orphanage, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, La Vie en Rose, and Away from Her. I hope to see most of those by the time the Oscars role around, so they could conceivably make for a slight shift in my top 10. That said, it seems unlikely that this top 10 is getting shaken up. I feel like this may be the strongest top 10 I've ever had for a year.

I have in years past tried to label a year as "good" or "bad." That has come back to bite me every time. For example: I called 2005 the best year for film this decade, while I felt 2006 was lacking. I am still in love with half my top 10 of 2006 and have a hard time recalling what some of my favorites of 2005 were even about. The perspective that comes with age is a wonderful thing, but unfortunately one cannot wait a few years to do a top 10 list. Who cares what the best film of a few years ago really was? I know some of these films I am about to talk about will fade away from my memory as years pass, but I really think that this year will be one that stays with me for a long time. And right now, these ten were truly great experiences.

I have in past years had to fill out the top 10 with less than perfect films (films I enjoyed but felt were still flawed). Not here: There are a number of films I regret not being able to find a place for in my top 10. Sicko, which hit on an issue I feel needs to be addressed immediately. Ratatouille, yet another classic from the masters at Pixar. Bridge to Terabithia, a supremely mature film for children and adults alike. Sydney Lumet's return to form in Before the Devil Know You're Dead. And there were many others (25 movies out of the 70 I saw got either a 3.5 or 4 star review from me). The top 10 are an eclectic bunch, though: two westerns, two musicals, and a documentary make for the least likely top 10 I could have imagined at the start of the year. Yet they all work, and together they make for a great summary of why I really liked 2007 at the movies.

10. The Bourne UltimatumThe Bourne trilogy just got better and better with each film, and it went out on the perfect note. In a summer filled with uninspired threequels, this one reminded me that sometimes a franchise can be a rewarding experience. Director Paul Greengrass knows how to both stage great action scenes as well as explore and expand his characters. And Matt Damon is on the top of his game here, solidifying the character of Jason Bourne as the most interesting action hero since James Bond. If this really is the end of the series, it will be sad, but at least all involved knew to leave us wanting more.

9. The King of KongI wrestled with this question for a long while: which documentary of the year warranted a mention in my top 10 - the important one or the fun one? When it came down to it, The King of Kong proved to be just too wonderful to ignore. For perhaps the first time ever I saw a documentary as not just something used to teach, but something to entertain. And entertain it did. One would be forgiven if they watched this film and assumed it was a mockumentary. The idea of two men battling over who has the best score in Donkey Kong sounds like a joke, but it works on so many levels it's kind of stunning. I found myself really cheering on the hero. It is both hilarious and heartbreaking. Underdog Steve Wiebe is so sympathetic and nemesis Billy Mitchell is so odious that you may find yourself shouting at the screen by the film's end. Even the most staunch documentary hater will be won over by this one, guaranteed.

8. Gone Baby GoneCongratulations to you, Ben Affleck. I've always had an appreciation for Affleck as an actor, so it made me sad to see his career fall apart so drastically. Thankfully he is just as good of a director as he is an actor (better probably), and his debut effort is a thought-provoking meditation on the nature of right and wrong. Some have complained that the ending is too out there, too unlikely, but I think it is a brilliant conclusion that really challenges the viewer's beliefs. This also may be the only film I saw all year that at the halfway mark I honestly had no clue as to where it was going to go next. That really counts for a lot in a medium that seems more interested in familiarity than freshness.

7. 3:10 to YumaI'm not sure if we really will see a resurgence of the Western in the coming years, but 2007 sure made it seem like the genre had a lot of life left in it. One of two major Westerns released this year, 3:10 to Yuma demonstrated that the genre could be just as fun and exciting as a present day set action film. With great performances across the board, a gripping story, and a final showdown that was among the most memorable moments of the year, this really was a film that delivered everything you could want. Here's hoping that the Western trend catches on and we see more great films like this.

6. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet StreetLeave it to Tim Burton to take my least favorite genre - the musical - and produce one of the best films of the year. In spite of the near nonstop musical numbers, I became enamored with this tale of a murderous barber out for revenge. It is one of the very, very few musicals I've seen in which I felt that the music imparted more story and depth than simple dialogue ever could have. In recent years I have found myself more and more open minded when it comes to genres I don't like, but the musical has long been the lone holdout. If Sweeney Todd (and another soon to be mentioned musical) is any indication, the barrier between me and musicals may be about to fall.

5. AtonementWhile a lot of people will disagree, I found the fall to be extremely weak for films. It seemed like every week a new film would be released and critics would fall in love with it, only for me to see it and be unimpressed. Michael Clayton, Juno, No Country for Old Men: all fell short. I was about to give up on the awards season altogether when along came Atonement. Finally an intelligent, well written, meaningful film that really fired on all cylinders. It works as a period drama, as a war film, as a mediation on art, and so much more. If you aren't in tune with the thematic undertones this film supplies, you might be left a little cold. But for me, the whole film works so perfectly because of the revelation at the ending, elevating the underlying themes to center stage and begging the question: can you really atone for your sins through art?

4. There Will Be BloodI need more time and more viewings to truly get a read on There Will Be Blood. I decided to forgo an official review of it because it wasn't a film that could be easily commented on. To be honest, I'm still not sure what it is I saw, but it affected me deeply, and that's important. Daniel Day-Lewis, it must be said, gives a performance every bit as good as you've heard, and the idea that anyone might beat him for the Oscar is a joke. He simply is Daniel Plainview in this film. Don't be fooled into thinking it's nothing more than an arthouse picture about oil drilling. It becomes something so much more as you watch it, and the final few scenes reveal what this movie was really about: the very nature of humanity and what being human entails. Family, religion, money, power; all play a part in the rise and fall of Plainview, and it is an amazing sight to behold. And that final scene: wow. It may seem over the top, but it works so well, really driving home what this bizarre masterpiece was about.

3. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert FordThe other big Western of the year was of a much more slow, deliberate breed. This isn't the kind of film you can rent on a Saturday night and passively enjoy with mom and dad. It demands a lot of you, and in return it really rewards you with its mediation on fame and envy. Casey Affleck gives another great performance, here as Robert Ford. One might think the film is anti-climatic since it reveals the climax in its title, but nothing could be further from the truth. No, it isn't filled with big shootouts or bank heists or anything else of that nature. What it is filled with is beautiful visuals, striking drama, and the best score of the year. I defy you not to be moved and wounded by the death of Jesse James, or by the downfall of Robert Ford after he has done the greatest deed in his life. It's simply filmmaking at its strongest.

2. ZodiacThe first film of 2007 I saw nearly made it the distance, falling just short of number 1. I saw 69 other films and yet it still stayed in my mind through the year: quite impressive. I went in expecting to get another David Fincher serial killer flick. What I got was anything but. Whereas Se7en was pure pulpy entertainment, this is a much more thoughtful project. It refuses to give you the easy releases that so many other films of this genre do: the search for the Zodiac killer ruins almost every character's life and he is never even caught. It becomes a film not about serial killers, but about obsession. Therein lies the genius: we see how these men become obsessed, while at the same time the film makes us become obsessed. Filled with so much detail, both factual and visual, we are almost overloaded. When the end arrives we still aren't sure who the Zodiac was; we just feel as obsessed and frustrated as the characters have become. A lot of people say they disliked Zodiac because it didn't have a resolution. That's just a testament to how successful Fincher was.

1. OnceReading my review of Once back in June, you'd probably be surprised to see it end up at number 1. Believe me, I was surprised as well. If you'd told me at the start of the year that I'd see films from the Coen Brothers, Tim Burton, David Fincher, Sydney Lumet, Quentin Tarantino, and many other masters of cinema, and that none of them would make a film as good as an independent Irish musical starring nonactors, I wouldn't have believed you. But something about this film really struck a chord (no pun intended), and I have not been able to get it out of my head all year long. No, it isn't the best looking film, nor the best acted, nor the most intricately written. But what it does have is something no other film had this year, at least not in abundance: it had one hell of a lot of heart. I have found myself listening to the soundtrack over and over, its magical web further ensnaring me (in fact I'm listening as I write this, and it makes me want to rewatch the film again for a fifth time). Once is proof that there is no formula for the best film of the year. Very few films are made with pure passion, but when they do come around, that passion really shines through. Such is the case with Once. I am simply in love with this movie.

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Inevitably when someone writes reviews for a specific medium - be it film, music, books, art, or whatever - biases come into play. Even the most seasoned critic can't help but gravitate towards certain genres or themes while consistently holding others at arm's length. Take, for example, Roger Ebert's strong predilection towards films dealing with race issues and his inability to enjoy the vast majority of film's made by David Lynch or Tim Burton. Everyone has different biases, and as such certain critics need to be taken with a grain of salt in specific instances. I say all this because this review is heavily influenced by my own biases, more so than most reviews. Sometimes I'll watch a film I don't especially love, but I can see why it deserves recognition and recommend it in spite of my own tastes (No Country for Old Men jumps to mind). But sometimes my own biases prove too strong to overcome. If I were to name my two biggest biases, they would certainly be that Tim Burton is my favorite filmmaker and that musicals are the most tedious of film genres to sit through. So imagine how hard it is for me to try and explain my thoughts on Sweeney Todd, a Tim Burton musical.

I had little notion of just what the story of Sweeney Todd entailed before I learned of Burton's decision to make a film version. It turned out that Todd follows a barber (Johnny Depp) who was living the perfect life in 19th century London with his wife and baby daughter, until one day a jealous Judge Turpin (Alan Rickman) had the barber falsely accused of a crime and sent away to prison for the rest of his life. The barber breaks out and returns to London, now calling himself Sweeney Todd and hellbent on revenge. He learns that his wife is gone and that his daughter is under the ward of the evil judge. With the help of local pie maker Mrs. Lovett (Helena Bonham Carter) he sets about murdering the citizens of London with his shaving razors while Lovett bakes the victims into meat pies. Singin' in the Rain this certainly is not.

I've had some time to think about Sweeney Todd, and I think there are a few reasons why it proved to be one of the most enjoyable films I've seen all year. Chief among them, of course, is the usual Tim Burton flairs. From the atmospheric world he has crafted to the dark humor and the themes of an outcast fighting against a society that doesn't understand him, it all feels like something straight out of Burton's mind. If you are in tune with Burton's visual style, you will certainly be sucked in within minutes. But I suspect that even if Burton was doing everything I usually expect of him, he still wouldn't have been able to make me fully appreciate the fact that it is a musical. And not just an occasional break-out-into-song musical, but a near opera of wall to wall music. No, I have to give credit to Stephen Sondheim for crafting a truly aurally striking masterpiece that rises above the typical musical to be something unique.

Whether it is Mrs. Lovett singing about how she has the worst meat pies in all of London, or Todd serenading his razor blades, the songs here are anything but typical. And they really convey just what the characters are thinking, what makes them tick. Perhaps one of the best moments in the film is when Todd has the judge within his grasp, only to lose him at the last second. The song Todd sings truly shows that any last thread of sanity he may have had is now gone forever. As he roams the streets singing about how he will have vengeance not just on the judge, but one everybody, we see that he is not the hero we once might have hoped him to be, but instead a monster, no better than the man who made him what he is.

I'm no expert on these things, but from what I can tell, Johnny Depp is not the greatest of singers. He never does a bad job, but he doesn't hit some notes in the way that is probably expected of him. Helena Bonham Carter isn't much better. But their acting is very good. We've come to expect Depp to be amazing in everything, so the fact that he can convey the emotional distress and conflicted nature of the demon barber comes as no shock. Carter actually outshines him at times, however, and she might have actually been my favorite characters. We understand why Todd has lost his mind, but the fact that Mrs. Lovett so willingly goes along with him makes much less sense at first. Yet Carter makes you believe that this woman would bake human victims into pies simply for the affection of Todd. Alan Rickman as the judge is a wonderful, if too brief, performance. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of him is how his pessimistic world view so closely mirrors that of Todd. Todd says we all deserve to die, while Judge Turpin says we are all guilty of something. I would have loved to get some more insight into what made Turpin into the man he had become. And a special note must be made of Timothy Spall, who plays Beadle, Turpin's right hand man. He is so effectively slimy and unlikable that he steals every scene he is in. Spall is a character actor that deserves more recognition than he gets, consistently outshining his costars in a number of big films.

All the things I hate about musicals were either not included here, or were tweaked in such a way that they became fun and exciting. This isn't a feel good musical made to get you to sing along. These aren't characters you are meant to route for. These are monsters singing about monstrous things, and it becomes much more complex for that fact. I'm not sure what you are to make of my review, however. If you love Burton films but hate musicals, then this movie was made for you. For me, this film is truly exciting in that it gave me a bit more appreciation for a genre I heretofore had no love for at all. Maybe I'm just getting more open minded in my old age. Or maybe Burton really has made a masterpiece in Sweeney Todd.